Will Curtiss-Wright (CW) Outperform Again in its Upcoming Earnings Release?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) has established a reputation for exceeding expectations, with a recent streak of strong earnings surprises and robust financial performance. As the company prepares for its August 6, 2025 earnings report, investors are asking: Can CW continue its winning streak? This analysis dives into the company's earnings surprise history, favorable Zacks metrics, and recent operational momentum to build a compelling case for a potential buy ahead of the release.

A Pattern of Outperformance

Curtiss-Wright's recent earnings track record is notable for consistency. Over the past two years, the company has averaged a 12.08% earnings surprise, with standout performances in key quarters:
- Q1 2025: EPS of $2.82 vs. estimates of $2.39 (a 17.99% surprise).
- Q4 2024: EPS of $3.27 vs. estimates of $3.08 (a 6.17% surprise).

These results reflect strong execution across all segments. In Q1 2025, Aerospace & Industrial sales rose 4%, Defense Electronics grew 16%, and Naval & Power sales surged 18%, driven by demand for advanced propulsion systems and nuclear components. Adjusted operating margins expanded to 16.6%, a 260 basis-point improvement year-over-year, fueled by operational efficiencies and favorable currency effects.

Zacks Metrics Signal Further Success

Curtiss-Wright's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise) currently stands at +2.58%, indicating a high probability of another beat. Combined with its Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which historically results in a 70% beat rate when both metrics align, the signals are bullish.

The Zacks Rank also factors in positive earnings momentum, with the company raising its full-year 2025 guidance after Q1's strong performance. Analysts now project $11.00 EPS for 2025, a 13% increase from 2024's $9.75.

Revenue Growth and Strategic Wins Fuel Confidence

Beyond earnings, Curtiss-Wright's recent achievements highlight its growth trajectory:
1. Record Order Intake: Q1 2025 saw $1.0 billion in new orders, a 13% year-over-year increase, bolstering its backlog to $3.7 billion—up 7% from 2024.
2. Segment Strength: The Defense Electronics segment, a key growth driver, has secured contracts with the U.S. Navy and Air Force, including advanced radar systems and cybersecurity solutions.
3. Strategic Acquisitions: The 2024 acquisition of Ultra Electronics expanded CW's capabilities in defense electronics, positioning it to capitalize on rising global defense spending.

Risks and Considerations

While CW's fundamentals are strong, risks remain. Geopolitical tensions or delays in defense contracts could pressure margins, while supply chain disruptions in high-tech manufacturing could impact production timelines. Investors should also monitor macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate trends and global defense budgets.

The Investment Thesis

Curtiss-Wright's combination of consistent earnings beats, robust backlog, and exposure to high-growth markets like nuclear energy and defense electronics makes it a compelling buy ahead of its August earnings. With a Zacks ESP +2.58% and a Zacks Rank #2, the data suggests a high probability of another positive surprise.

Actionable Recommendation:
- Buy CW at current levels ($200.50 as of July 14, 2025) for a potential 12-month target of $230–$240, assuming earnings beat and guidance upgrades.
- Wait for a pullback: Consider entering if shares dip below $195 on near-term volatility, using stop-losses at $185.

Conclusion

Curtiss-Wright's track record, favorable metrics, and strategic positioning in high-demand sectors make it a top pick for investors looking to capitalize on resilient industrial and defense trends. With a strong likelihood of another earnings beat, CW could be primed to deliver outperformance—and potentially outpace the broader market in the coming quarters.