Current Mortgage Rates Report for Jan. 9, 2026: Rates Tick Back Down

Mortgage rates in the U.S. ticked back down slightly on Jan. 9, 2026, according to the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.16%, a marginal increase from the prior week but a significant drop from the 6.93% recorded a year ago. This decline reflects ongoing easing in the housing market following a series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2025 according to CBS News.

The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting campaign has reshaped the borrowing landscape for homebuyers, with the key interest rate expected to settle at 3.4% by the end of 2028, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Despite these cuts, however, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes is projected to rise gradually, which could push mortgage borrowing costs higher over the next two years as projected.

The CBO's recent economic projections incorporate factors such as Trump's tariffs, immigration policies, and the 2025 government shutdown, all of which are expected to affect GDP, employment, and inflation trends as forecasted.

Why Did This Happen?

The decline in mortgage rates is largely attributed to the Fed's aggressive rate-cutting campaign in late 2025, which totaled 75 basis points over three consecutive meetings. These actions were taken in response to easing inflationary pressures, which allowed the central bank to lower short-term borrowing costs according to analysis.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, has also moved in a favorable direction for borrowers. As of the fourth quarter of 2025, it stood at 4.1%, and while it is projected to increase to 4.3% by the end of 2028, it remains below the levels seen in recent years as projected.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the unemployment rate, which reached 4.6% in 2026, the highest level in years according to data. A further rise in unemployment could signal the need for additional rate cuts from the Fed to stimulate economic activity as noted.

Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to rise to 2.2% in 2026, supported by the tax and spending law and a rebound from the 2025 government shutdown according to projections. However, growth is projected to slow in 2027 and 2028 as fiscal support wanes and labor force growth slows as forecasted.

The CBO has also noted that the unemployment rate is expected to ease to 4.4% by 2028, driven by fewer migrants in the country and the impact of Trump's tax and spending law according to analysis.

Investor Implications

Homebuyers and refinancers are currently in a strong position, with 30-year mortgage rates hovering near 6% as of Jan. 8, 2026. While these rates are still higher than those seen earlier in the decade, they represent a meaningful improvement from the 7% levels that dominated 2023 and early 2024 as reported.

For refinancing, the median refi rate for a 30-year term stood at 6.75% as of Jan. 8, 2026 according to data. Experts recommend waiting until rates are at least one full percentage point lower than the existing mortgage to justify a refinance as advised.

Investors are also advised to monitor the broader economic environment, including labor market data and inflation trends, as these could influence the trajectory of mortgage rates in the coming months according to CBO projections. The CBO's projections suggest that while the Fed may cut rates further in 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise, which could lead to higher mortgage rates over time as forecasted.