CURRENC Group's Strategic Pivot Faces Crucial Test as 2024 Results Loom

CURRENC Group Inc. is set to release its full-year 2024 financial results on April 16, 2025, marking a pivotal moment for investors to assess whether its restructuring efforts have positioned the digital payments firm for sustained growth. The company’s third-quarter results, released earlier this year, revealed a mix of operational resilience and near-term challenges, with management emphasizing a strategic shift toward cost discipline and core business focus. Analysts will scrutinize the full-year data to determine whether these moves can offset headwinds in the competitive remittance and airtime sectors.

The Paradox of Growth and Decline

CURRENC’s Total Processing Value (TPV), a key metric for transaction volume, grew 6.1% year-over-year to $1.21 billion in Q3 2024, with 9M TPV surging 18.8% to $3.92 billion. This expansion underscores broader adoption of its services, particularly in digital remittances and Indonesian airtime transfers. Yet, revenue declined 11% YoY to $11.3 million in Q3, driven by a collapse in global airtime revenue (-22.1%) and the divestiture of non-core assets like TNG Asia and GEA.

Analysts attribute the revenue shortfall to falling take rates (0.37% in Q3 vs. 0.40% in 2023), reflecting aggressive pricing in hyper-competitive remittance markets. While Tranglo, CURRENC’s remittance division, maintained stable transaction volumes and a 13.2% YoY net income rise to $1.53 million, its take rates also contracted, highlighting margin pressures.

Cost Cuts and One-Time Charges

The Q3 net loss widened to $5.0 million, up 31.6% YoY, primarily due to $13.1 million in stock-based compensation and $1 million in merger advisory fees tied to its INFINT SPAC merger. These costs, labeled “non-recurring” by management, skewed profitability. However, adjusted EBITDA improved dramatically, with losses narrowing to $0.2 million (83.3% better than 2023), signaling progress in operational efficiency.

The restructuring of CURRENC’s portfolio—selling TNG Asia and GEA to focus on Tranglo and WalletKu—appears to have stabilized its core. Tranglo’s remittance revenues fell just 1% YoY in Q3, while WalletKu contributed $4.0 million in Q3 airtime revenue, proving resilient despite broader industry declines.

Analyst Sentiment: A Delicate Balancing Act

Financial analysts praise the strategic pivot but warn of lingering risks. “CURRENC is trading volume for margin,” noted one analyst, citing Tranglo’s 18.8% TPV growth against shrinking take rates. “The question is whether scale can eventually drive profitability in a sector where competitors are slashing prices to gain share.”

Market analysts highlight Southeast Asia’s remittance market as both an opportunity and a threat. While Tranglo’s compliance-focused model positions it to serve regulated corridors, regional players like Razer Fintech and Grab Financial are intensifying competition.

What the Full-Year Results Must Deliver

Investors will look for two critical signals in the full-year report:
1. Sustained TPV Growth: Will the 9M 2024 TPV surge of 18.8% hold through Q4, or will seasonality or market saturation slow momentum?
2. Margin Stabilization: Can Tranglo and WalletKu maintain positive EBITDA contributions amid pricing pressures? A narrowing of the net loss (2023: $13.5M; 9M 2024: $11.3M) would reassure investors.

Conclusion: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?

CURRENC’s 2024 results will serve as a litmus test for its strategic bets. The company has decisively exited underperforming segments and demonstrated cost-cutting discipline, with adjusted EBITDA losses slashed by 75% year-to-date. Tranglo’s net income growth and TPV expansion suggest its core business is strengthening, but margin erosion remains a critical vulnerability.

The market’s reaction will hinge on whether management can prove that volume gains can offset pricing pressures. With merger-related costs receding, 2025 could mark a turning point—if CURRENC’s focus on compliance, cost efficiency, and core markets translates to sustainable profitability. For now, the company’s story is one of cautious optimism: a restructured CURRENC is healthier, but the road to profitability is still under construction.

Investors should watch closely for signs that Tranglo’s scale and WalletKu’s niche dominance can counterbalance sector-wide margin compression. The April 16 results will either validate this pivot—or reveal that CURRENC’s growth still comes at too high a cost.