Curiositystream’s Earnings Calls Clash on 2026 Subscription Growth and SG&A Forecasts

Date of Call: Mar 11, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Q4: $19.2M, up 36% YOY; Full Year: $71.7M, up 40% YOY
• Gross Margin: Q4: 60%, up from 52% a year ago; Full Year: 57%, up from prior year

Guidance:

• Revenue for first half 2026 expected in the range of $38M-$42M.
• Adjusted free cash flow for first half 2026 expected in the range of $6M-$9M.
• Expect double-digit growth in both revenue and cash flow for full year 2026.
• Believe a full year of positive GAAP earnings is achievable.

Business Commentary:

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion:

• CuriosityStream reported revenue of $71.7 million for the full year 2025, a 40% increase from $51.1 million in 2024. Gross margins expanded to 60% in Q4 from 52% a year ago.
• The growth was driven by strong performance in both subscription and licensing revenue, supported by operational execution, new partnerships, and cost discipline.

Licensing Revenue and AI Demand:

• Licensing revenue for the full year 2025 was $33.2 million, an increase of over $25 million from 2024, driven by growth in AI training fulfillments.
• The increase is attributed to the durable nature of CuriosityStream's content library, growing demand from AI developers, and strategic licensing agreements with major companies.

Subscription Revenue Stability:

• Subscription revenue for the full year 2025 was $37 million, with expectations to grow at low to mid-single digit percentages in 2026.
• This stability is due to operational execution, new pricing strategies, and the expansion of wholesale and retail partnerships.

Cash Flow and Financial Health:

• Adjusted free cash flow for the full year 2025 increased 46% to $13.9 million from $9.5 million in 2024. The company ended the year with $27.3 million in liquidity and no outstanding debt.
• The strong cash flow generation and financial health are supported by disciplined cost management and the non-cash charges associated with stock-based compensation and one-time expenses.

Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion:

• CuriosityStream anticipates its partner roster to more than double in 2026 and potentially increase 5-6x in 2027, driven by the fine-tuning of open-source models.
• The company's strategic focus on acquiring and licensing premium content, along with strong partnerships, contributes to its market expansion and growth prospects.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management expressed confidence in strong double-digit growth, stating 'We believe we will continue double-digit growth in both revenue and cash flow'. They highlighted 'strong full year 2025 results' with revenue up 40%. The tone was optimistic regarding licensing surpassing subscriptions and executing on opportunities, with statements like 'We have the goods. We have really unique advantages.'

Q&A:

• Question from Dan Medina (Needham & Company): Could you please update us on whether LLM licensors are renewing their deals with you and how the nature of second contracts is different from the earliest LLM contracts you licensed?
  Response: Yes, virtually all partners have renewed or will renew; repeat business is strong and new partners are showing high volume interest.

• Question from Dan Medina (Needham & Company): Any change in the pace of adding other company’s libraries to your ability to license ours to the LLMs?
  Response: No change; the company is constantly in acquisition mode and has built an extraordinary library, with demand from top companies.

• Question from Dan Medina (Needham & Company): Can you give us some cases of how LLMs are using the information you license to them in the market to make money, tools, and apps?
  Response: Content is used across evolving AI stages from text to multimodal and physical AI, enabling use cases like video summarization, agentic systems, and embedding AI into robots and devices.

• Question from Jason Kreyer (Craig-Hallum): Clint, you called out 2026 as the greatest year in company history. Can you unpack that from a metrics standpoint, perhaps with some more clarity on your goals for the base streaming business and then the licensing opportunity?
  Response: Confident in low- to mid-single-digit% growth for subscriptions driven by new partnerships, price increases, and marketing; licensing revenue expected to exceed subscription revenue, with significant partnership expansion anticipated.

• Question from Dave Marsh (Singular Research): On the subscription front, how many new platforms are you expecting to launch during FY 2026? How many new countries do you think you could launch with existing partners?
  Response: Expect 12-20 new platform launches in FY 2026, with confidence in subscriber growth from partners.

• Question from Dave Marsh (Singular Research): If I heard you correctly, it sounded like SG&A would have been down $1 million year-over-year without the non-recurring charges. Would mid-20 millions be a good expected run rate for fiscal year 2026?
  Response: A mid-20 million run rate for G&A (excluding stock-based comp) is fair, though stock-based comp remains a wild card.

• Question from Dave Marsh (Singular Research): Any M&A opportunities you might consider?
  Response: Will consider M&A in the best interest of shareholders; the environment is ripe, but the focus is on executing and showing value first.

• Question from Patrick Sholl (Barrington Research): Could you provide any additional color on the market for content to license for AI training and how your partnership with Veritone Video Training Library supports these efforts?
  Response: Veritone helps organize and clip content, managing large volumes; the company's diverse corpus from over 200 partners (including scripted and sports content) provides a unique advantage.

• Question from Patrick Sholl (Barrington Research): With the price increase implemented March 1, what is the timing of it being fully implemented and expectations on churn?
  Response: Full implementation will take a year due to annual subscriptions; churn impact is expected to be around 3-5% initially, with benefits through February 2027.

• Question from Patrick Sholl (Barrington Research): Any additional commentary on the cadence of guidance and expectations on the full year?
  Response: Guidance is broad due to lumpy, large licensing deals with variable payment cycles; plans to narrow guidance during Q2, with confidence in achieving double-digit growth.

Contradiction Point 1

Subscription Revenue Growth Expectations

Contradiction on the expected growth rate for the subscription business in 2026, impacting financial forecasts.

Jason Kreyer (Craig-Hallum) - Jason Kreyer (Craig-Hallum)

2025Q4: Subscription revenue growth of low- to mid-single digits % (off a base of ~$36-37M/year) - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

Clint, you called 2026 the greatest year in company history—can you detail the metrics, including goals for the base streaming business and the licensing opportunity? - David Marsh (Singular Research)

20251113-2025 Q3: The company is confident that overall subscription revenue (retail & wholesale) will grow faster in 2026 than in 2025 - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

SG&A Expense Outlook for 2026

Contradiction on whether a significant non-recurring SBC charge is expected to recur in near-term quarters.

Dave Marsh (Singular Research) - Dave Marsh (Singular Research)

2025Q4: The mid-20 million range is a fair estimate, though stock-based comp remains a wild card. - [P. Brady Hayden](CFO)

Would a mid-20 million SG&A run rate for fiscal year 2026 be appropriate, excluding non-recurring charges, given the $1 million year-over-year decrease? - David Marsh (Singular Research)

20251113-2025 Q3: The company does not expect a charge of this magnitude in the near-term quarters, though some expense will continue. - [P. Brady Hayden](CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Operational Model and Cost Structure

Contradiction on whether cost structure is a minor addition or a fundamental shift.

Dan Medina (Needham & Company) - Dan Medina (Needham & Company)

2025Q4: Infrastructure, human talent, and subscription services are now sturdy. - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

Has the pace of integrating third-party libraries impacted your ability to license your own libraries to LLMs? - Laura Anne Martin (Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q2: The existing relationships and processes... facilitate licensing AI rights without significantly increasing costs. The primary costs are relatively minor storage and delivery expenses. The company prides itself on being lean (~42 FTEs), with revenue per employee estimated at $1.5M-$2M. - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Growth Trajectory for Subscription Business

Contradiction on the expected pace of new platform launches.

Dave Marsh (Singular Research) - Dave Marsh (Singular Research)

2025Q4: The company anticipates launching 12-20 new platforms in FY 2026. - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

On the subscription front, how many new platforms are you expecting to launch during FY 2026, and how many new countries could you launch with existing partners in the same period? - Kris Tuttle (Unidentified Company)

2025Q2: The current focus is on building out the factual and entertainment library. While the company is not actively pursuing specialized training videos... - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Licensing Revenue Growth Trajectory

Contradiction on whether licensing revenue is growing from a recent base or represents a new, larger opportunity.

Jason Kreyer (Craig-Hallum) - Jason Kreyer (Craig-Hallum)

2025Q4: Licensing revenue to exceed subscription revenue, driven by repeat business and expansion... potentially 5-6x larger in 2027. - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)

Can you provide clarity on the metrics and goals for the base streaming business and licensing opportunity that will make 2026 the greatest year in company history? - David Marsh (Singular Research)

2025Q1: Significant growth came from licensing revenue, up about $4 million, driven by a broad corpus of content... - [Clint Stinchcomb](CEO)