Cummins, Belden, Perma-Fix: The Smart Money Is Selling While the Retail Crowd Buys

The setup is a classic trap. While the retail crowd is chasing momentum, the smart money is quietly cashing out. Across three stocks, the divergence between price action and insider behavior is stark.

At Cummins, the stock has been on a tear, surging 38.6% over the last 90 days. Yet, insiders have been heavy sellers. In that same period, they unloaded shares with a net value of -$9.1 million. The top executives are leading the exit: Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey and CFO Mark Smith executed significant sales. This is a major red flag. When the people who know the business best are taking profits as the stock hits a new high, it often signals they see the rally as overextended.

Belden shows a similar pattern. Despite the stock hitting a new 52-week high, insiders sold roughly $1.37 million in shares over the last three months. The sales were not anonymous; they were led by the CAO and a Senior Vice President. This is institutional accumulation in reverse. The smart money is trimming positions just before a key earnings report due next week.

The most telling case is Perma-Fix. Shares have surged over 20% in the last month, yet there is no evidence of insider buying. In a true turnaround story, you'd expect executives to be buying to signal confidence. Their silence, in the face of a powerful rally, is deafening. It suggests they see little value left to capture and are content to let others buy the top.

The bottom line is clear. When insiders are selling into strength, it's a powerful signal that the alignment of interest has broken. The retail crowd is buying the hype; the smart money is taking the profits.

The Financial Reality vs. The Pump Narrative

The bullish headlines are easy to find. Cummins' CEO is hyping the future of its Accelera electrolyzer business, and Belden's stock hit a new 52-week high. But the smart money is looking past the hype to the underlying numbers, where the story is far less rosy.

At Cummins, the financial reality is a clear miss. The company's full-year 2025 revenue declined 1% to $33.7 billion, and its last quarterly report missed expectations by 20.9%. The stock's rally is built on future guidance, not present strength. The CEO's push for the new electrolyzer segment is a classic pump-and-dump signal. That business is a net operating loss leader, with Accelera Segment 2025 Revenue of $460 million with a net operating loss of $438 million. When the CEO is selling into the rally while hyping a money-losing venture, it's a textbook case of misalignment. The smart money sees the future forecast as a distraction from the current weakness.

Belden presents a different kind of misalignment. The stock is trading near its highs, but the real smart money is already positioned. With 98.75% institutional ownership, the whales have their bets placed. The upcoming earnings report on February 12 is just a formality for them. Analysts project EPS of $1.93 for the quarter, but the stock's move has already priced in optimism. The recent insider selling of roughly $1.37 million suggests the smart money is taking profits from a position they likely built months ago, not chasing a new story.

The bottom line is a divergence between narrative and numbers. Cummins is selling a future growth story while its core business struggles. Belden's smart money is already in the bank, waiting for the next move. In both cases, the retail crowd is buying the hype; the smart money is taking the profits.

Institutional Accumulation: A Whale Wallet Check

The smart money isn't just selling; it's also not buying. When larger investors are accumulating, it often signals conviction. But the data here shows the opposite-a whale wallet that is already loaded.

Belden is the clearest case. With 98.75% institutional ownership, the big players have their bets firmly placed. This isn't a story of new accumulation; it's a story of existing conviction. The recent insider selling of roughly $1.37 million suggests the smart money is taking profits from a position they likely built months ago, not chasing a new narrative. The whale wallet is already full, leaving little room for further institutional buying to drive the price higher.

The same gap is notable at Cummins. Despite the stock's 38.6% rally, there is no evidence of disclosed institutional buying alongside the heavy insider selling. The smart money is trimming its position, not adding to it. This divergence between price action and institutional flow is a classic sign of a top being formed.

For Perma-Fix, the data is more opaque. Institutional ownership figures are not readily available, but the stock's 20% surge in the last month is a retail story. When a stock moves that sharply on low volume and there's no evidence of institutional accumulation, it points to speculation, not conviction. The retail crowd is buying the hype; the institutional whales are staying on the sidelines.

The bottom line is a lack of smart money accumulation. In a true uptrend, you'd see both insider buying and institutional accumulation. Here, the pattern is one of selling and silence. The smart money is either already out or choosing not to step in.

Catalysts and What to Watch: The Trap's Trigger

The trap's trigger is now in the hands of the smart money. The near-term catalysts will confirm whether the recent insider selling is a prudent exit or a premature capitulation.

For Belden, the key event is its Q4 2025 results due February 12. The stock is already trading near its 52-week high, and the consensus expects EPS of $1.93. The real watchpoint is not the number itself, but the reaction. The smart money has already sold roughly $1.37 million in shares over the last three months. If that selling continues unabated after the report, it will signal the whales see no new reason to stay. A reversal in that pattern-insiders buying or at least halting sales-would be a major signal that the smart money's alignment has reformed. Until then, the earnings report is just a formality for them.

For Perma-Fix, the catalyst is simpler: the sustainability of its 20% surge in the last month. With no evidence of insider buying, the rally appears to be a retail-driven story. The watchpoint is whether the price action holds or reverses. A sustained move higher would require new institutional accumulation, which is not yet visible. A reversal would confirm the smart money's silence was a vote of no confidence. The stock's recent volatility shows the trap is already active.

The bottom line is that these events are the litmus test. The smart money has already spoken with its trades. Now, we watch to see if their skin in the game changes.