CryptoQuant: Weak Market Demand Indicates Current Rebound is Merely a Bear Market Rally, Bitcoin Price Action Resembles 2022 High

Bitcoin’s recent price action resembles a classic bear market rally, with the 21% rebound since November 2025 failing to push the asset above its critical 365-day moving average. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant argues that the current market remains in bearish territory, despite the recent rally.

The 365-day moving average currently sits at $101,000 and has historically served as a key dividing line between bull and bear market conditions. Bitcoin’s price has risen to as high as $97.9K, approaching but not yet reclaiming this level. Analysts point out that a similar pattern occurred in 2022, when Bitcoin rallied 47% after falling below the same moving average but was eventually rejected and continued its decline.

Exchange inflows have increased sharply in recent weeks, signaling potential selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant, this trend could indicate that holders are preparing to offload Bitcoin as the price approaches key resistance levels.

Why Is This a Bear Market Rally?

A bear market rally is defined as a short-lived price increase within a broader downtrend. In Bitcoin’s case, the rally is occurring amid weak demand and continued selling by long-term holders. While retail sentiment may appear optimistic, on-chain data shows that spot demand remains subdued. This is a key difference from previous bull cycles, where retail and institutional participation were more synchronized.

The 365-day moving average remains a crucial metric for technical analysts. Historically, a sustainable move above this level has confirmed the start of a bull market, while a failure to do so has led to further declines. The current price trajectory mirrors the 2022 bear market cycle, with similar patterns of price rejection at the 365-day MA.

How Have Markets Reacted to the Rally?

Bitcoin has not yet broken through $101,000, a level that is already home to multiple resistance points. This price threshold has historically been a turning point, with successful breakouts signaling a shift in market sentiment. However, technical indicators remain bearish, and many analysts warn that the current rebound is unlikely to mark the end of the bear market.

Market participants are closely watching whether Bitcoin can hold above $94,253, a critical Fibonacci support level. A breakdown below this level could trigger renewed selling pressure, pushing the price toward the 50-day EMA at $92,216.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Exchange inflows are now at a seven-day average of 39K BTC, the highest since November 2025. This suggests increased selling pressure, with investors preparing to offload Bitcoin ahead of potential price declines.

The Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) remains stable, indicating that miner selling behavior has not accelerated. However, any sharp increase in miner distribution could signal heightened market stress. Analysts are also monitoring ETF inflows, which have plateaued since 2024 and have not provided enough momentum to drive a full market recovery.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can break the historical bearish pattern. A successful reclaim of the $101,000 level would be a significant confirmation of a potential trend reversal. If the price is rejected again, it may confirm the continuation of the bear market and potentially set the stage for a retreat toward $65,000 during 2026.