Crypto Winter Intensifies: Why Aster, Midnight, and Ethena Are Facing Extended Sell-Offs

The crypto market's winter has deepened in 2025, with prolonged sell-offs in high-profile projects like Aster, Midnight, and Ethena underscoring systemic fragility. While macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory uncertainty have contributed to the downturn, technical and on-chain bearish signals are amplifying the pressure. These metrics reveal structural weaknesses in liquidity, tokenomics, and market sentiment, painting a grim picture for investors.

Aster: Liquidity Collapse and Token Unlock Risks

Aster, a leading perpetual derivatives platform, has seen its Total Value Locked (TVL) plummet by $362 million in a single week, with daily trading volumes now languishing at $78 million-far below the $10.14 billion and $8.06 billion of competitors like Lighter and Hyperliquid according to analysis. This collapse reflects a loss of liquidity and user confidence, exacerbated by weak on-chain indicators. . The MACD death cross and an Aroon Down reading of 93% signal a dominant bearish trend.

Compounding these issues is an impending token unlock in December, which will release 78.41 million ASTER tokens-3.89% of the market cap-into circulation according to forecasts. Historical patterns suggest such unlocks often trigger sell-offs, as large holders offload tokens to capitalize on short-term gains. Meanwhile, ASTER's price remains trapped in a low-demand zone between $1.03 and $1.14, with key support levels at $0.70 and $0.50 according to market analysis.

Midnight: Volatility and Ecosystem-Wide Spillovers

Midnight (NIGHT), a privacy-focused Layer-1 blockchain built on Cardano, has faced a catastrophic launch. Its token price dropped 66.63% within 24 hours, trading at $0.03503 with a market cap of $581.79 million. This collapse was driven by heavy selling from airdrop recipients and broader market volatility. Technical indicators like an RSI of 25 and a bearish MACD suggest further downward pressure.

The fallout extended to Cardano's native token, ADA, which fell 10% in the same period. This spillover effect highlights Midnight's integration into the Cardano ecosystem and the interconnected risks of speculative DeFi projects. While some analysts predict short-term stabilization as the market absorbs volatility, the project's fundamentals remain unproven, and its reliance on Cardano's broader performance adds another layer of uncertainty.

Ethena: Tokenomics and Technical Downtrends

Ethena (ENA), a DeFi protocol offering synthetic stablecoins and structured exposure to derivatives, has seen its price drop below critical support levels. The token now trades near $0.2000, with further declines targeting $0.1845. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish narrative: an RSI of 33 and a MACD crossover below its signal line.

Ethena's tokenomics also pose challenges. With 49.5% of its 15 billion total supply already circulating, the continuous daily release of new tokens creates persistent sell pressure. This dynamic is compounded by the project's reliance on its synthetic dollar, USDe, which uses a delta-neutral hedging strategy involving staked ETH and short ETH futures. While innovative, this model introduces volatility, particularly in a bear market where liquidity dries up.

Broader Market Implications

The struggles of Aster, Midnight, and Ethena reflect deeper vulnerabilities in the crypto ecosystem. On-chain metrics like declining TVL, weak trading volumes, and bearish technical indicators signal a loss of institutional and retail confidence. For example, Ethena's fee revenue is largely recycled to maintain TVL, leaving minimal surplus for token holders, while Aster's ecosystem faces a liquidity vacuum.

Investors must also contend with macroeconomic factors, including the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and geopolitical tensions, which create a risk-on/risk-off environment according to market analysis. However, the absence of robust fundamentals in these projects means they remain highly susceptible to market corrections.

Conclusion: Navigating the Winter

For investors, the bearish signals from Aster, Midnight, and Ethena underscore the need for caution. While technical rebounds could offer short-term opportunities, such as a bounce from Ethena's $0.22–$0.27 support zone or a stabilization in Midnight's RSI, the broader market's fragility suggests prolonged volatility. Projects lacking strong tokenomics, liquidity, or institutional backing will likely face extended sell-offs, amplifying the crypto winter's impact.

As the market tests the resilience of these projects, the focus should remain on fundamentals and on-chain transparency. Until then, the path to recovery remains uncertain.