Crypto Rallies as Venezuela Shock Shifts Risk Mood

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market surged in the wake of U.S. military action in Venezuela. Following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, traders speculated on the potential economic fallout, particularly related to oil prices. Bitcoin rose to over $90,000 within three days, while the total crypto market cap added about $100 billion.

The U.S. military action has introduced uncertainty over Venezuela’s oil reserves, with President Trump stating plans to seize control and invite U.S. energy firms to invest. Analysts suggest this could result in a significant drop in oil prices, potentially reducing global inflation and boosting Bitcoin.

Venezuela’s alleged Bitcoin holdings have become a focal point. Intelligence estimates suggest the country may hold between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC, valued at $60 billion to $67 billion. If the U.S. freezes or seizes these assets, it could create a major supply shock in the Bitcoin market.

Why Did This Happen?

The U.S. military operation in Venezuela has unsettled global markets. Analysts suggest the U.S. aims to control Venezuela's oil reserves and stabilize the country under a transitional government. President Trump has also hinted at a potential crypto-related initiative, which could influence market sentiment.

Venezuela’s accumulation of Bitcoin began as a strategy to circumvent international sanctions. The country reportedly converted gold sales and oil exports into Bitcoin and Tether between 2018 and 2025. This has resulted in a shadow reserve of over 600,000 BTC, comparable to major institutional holders like BlackRock and MicroStrategy.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies gained momentum in early 2026, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and renewed risk appetite. Bitcoin rose over 1% in a single day, while Ethereum and XRP also posted gains. ETF inflows resumed for Bitcoin and Ethereum, adding approximately $459 million and $161 million respectively.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela has triggered speculation about the future of Venezuela’s Bitcoin reserves. Market participants are closely watching whether the U.S. will seize or freeze the assets, with some analysts suggesting this could support higher Bitcoin prices in the short to medium term.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring the potential impact on global oil prices and the U.S. dollar. If Venezuela’s oil reserves become accessible, it could lead to a drop in oil prices, reducing inflation and creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

The U.S. faces critical decisions regarding the handling of Venezuela’s Bitcoin assets. Options include freezing the holdings in litigation, incorporating them into a U.S. strategic reserve, or auctioning them. The most likely scenario appears to be a long-term freeze, which could lock up supply and reinforce a bullish outlook for Bitcoin according to market analysis.

Traders are also watching for further geopolitical developments. President Trump’s recent warnings against Colombia have heightened regional tensions, raising concerns about broader Latin American stability.

Bitcoin traders have also increased their positioning for a potential rally above $100,000, with a notable surge in call option trading on Deribit. This indicates strong bullish sentiment among market participants.