Crypto's New Pickaxe Play: Assessing the Long-Term Value of Infrastructure Gatekeepers

The crypto boom of the past decade has always been a tale of two sides: the speculative frenzy of tokens and the quiet, methodical rise of infrastructure. Today, as the sector matures, the latter is gaining traction. Firms like Gemini, Grayscale, and BitGo are no longer just facilitators—they are gatekeepers to a digital economy that now boasts a $4 trillion market cap. Their recent financials, user growth, and regulatory positioning suggest they are primed to become the next "pickaxe play," akin to the early-stage investments in the tools of the gold rush rather than the gold itself.

Grayscale: The Index Architect of a New Asset Class

Grayscale, the crypto asset manager behind the Bitcoin Trust and Ethereum Trust, has long been a bridge between institutional investors and the volatile world of digital assets. By Q2 2025, its market capitalization had surpassed $3 trillion, with the firm managing over $33 billion in assets. Its recent foray into the Artificial Intelligence Crypto Sector—a $15 billion segment of 24 tokens—highlights its role as a curator of innovation. The sector's 10% gain in Q2 underscores Grayscale's ability to identify and capitalize on emerging trends, such as decentralized AI development and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

Grayscale's IPO filing in 2024, now likely to materialize in 2025, positions it to monetize its steady revenue stream from management fees. With a revenue model that benefits from sustained crypto adoption, Grayscale's valuation could mirror the success of Circle (CRCL), whose shares surged 400% post-IPO. However, investors must scrutinize its exposure to high-volatility tokens and its reliance on regulatory clarity. The firm's updated Research Top 20 list, which includes Avalanche (AVAX) and Morpho (MORPHO), reflects a cautious optimism about institutional-grade assets.

Gemini: Rebuilding Trust in a Fractured Ecosystem

Gemini's journey from a centralized exchange to a regulated custodian is emblematic of the crypto sector's evolution. After resolving the Genesis-related "Earn" program crisis in 2024—returning 97% of assets to users—the firm has focused on compliance and transparency. Its 2024 IPO filing, targeting a $7.1 billion valuation, is a bet on its ability to scale as a trusted infrastructure provider.

Gemini's user base has grown steadily, with 82 million monthly active users by Q2 2025, driven by its integration into Google's AI ecosystem and enterprise partnerships. The firm's emphasis on security, including multi-signature wallets and Approved Addresses, aligns with institutional demand for risk mitigation. However, its path to profitability hinges on navigating regulatory scrutiny, particularly from the New York Attorney General (NYAG). A successful IPO would not only validate its business model but also provide capital to expand into DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) and tokenized assets.

BitGo: The Custody King in a $100 Billion Fortress

BitGo's dominance in crypto custody is a testament to the sector's shift toward institutional-grade security. By mid-2025, the firm safeguarded over $100 billion in assets, with a valuation of $1.75 billion following its 2023 Series C funding. Its confidential IPO filing in 2025 signals a strategic pivot to public markets, mirroring the trajectory of Grayscale and Circle.

BitGo's revenue model—built on custody fees, staking services, and compliance tools—is less exposed to token price volatility than its exchange counterparts. Its multi-signature technology and regulatory compliance (including DFS and NYAG standards) position it as a critical player in an era where institutional adoption is accelerating. The firm's timing is fortuitous: as the crypto market capitalization hits record highs, demand for secure infrastructure is surging. A successful IPO could unlock capital to expand into cross-chain solutions and RWA tokenization, further solidifying its moat.

Regulatory Tailwinds and the Path to Legitimacy

The regulatory landscape remains a double-edged sword. While the U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025 has provided a framework for stablecoin oversight, it also raises compliance costs for infrastructure providers. However, firms like Gemini and BitGo, which have proactively engaged with regulators, are better positioned to thrive. Grayscale's alignment with institutional-grade assets and its role in tokenizing RWAs further insulate it from speculative headwinds.

Investment Thesis: Infrastructure as a Long-Term Bet

For long-term investors, these IPOs represent more than a speculative play—they are a bet on the infrastructure underpinning the next phase of the digital economy. Grayscale's index curation, Gemini's trust rebuilding, and BitGo's custody expertise each address critical gaps in the crypto ecosystem. Their financials—Grayscale's fee-based revenue, Gemini's user growth, and BitGo's asset under custody—suggest durable business models.

However, caution is warranted. The sector's volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and the speculative nature of some assets mean these investments carry inherent risks. Investors should prioritize transparency in IPO filings, assess each firm's exposure to high-risk tokens, and evaluate their alignment with broader trends like institutional adoption and RWA tokenization.

Conclusion: The Pickaxe Play in the Digital Age

As the crypto economy matures, the value of infrastructure gatekeepers will only grow. Grayscale, Gemini, and BitGo are not just facilitating access to digital assets—they are building the rails for a new financial system. For investors seeking to capitalize on this shift, these IPOs offer a compelling opportunity, provided they are approached with a long-term lens and a clear understanding of the risks. In the end, the true gold may not be in the tokens themselves, but in the tools that make the ecosystem possible.