Crypto Markets Show 6% Chance of Trump Impeachment by 2025

Crypto-based prediction markets indicate that the likelihood of US President Donald Trump facing impeachment proceedings remains low, despite recent political developments. According to data from Polymarket, crypto bettors estimate a mere 6% chance that Trump will be impeached by the US House of Representatives before the end of 2025. This figure represents a slight increase from the previous week's 5% but remains relatively insignificant.

Polymarket's terms specify that the outcome will be resolved as "Yes" only if the House approves one or more articles of impeachment against Trump by a simple majority vote before 11:59 P.M. ET on December 31, 2025. A Senate trial or conviction is not necessary for the resolution. The market relies on official government releases and verified reports from credible sources to determine results.

The renewed speculation follows fresh political activity, with Representative Al Green introducing an article of impeachment on June 24. The resolution argues that Trump bypassed Congress before authorizing military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, thereby abusing the powers of the presidency and posing a threat to American democracy. Notably, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had voiced support for an impeachment over the weekend, stating that the recent strikes against Iran were unconstitutional.

However, Trump has responded to these impeachment threats with a lengthy post on Truth Social. The US president mocked Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats, calling them “stupid” and accusing them of being unable to accept his political victories. According to him, the reason for their “rantings” is all of the victories that the USA has had under the Trump Administration, and the Democrats aren’t used to winning, and they can’t stand the concept of the country being successful again.

Despite the formal push in Congress and the support from some representatives, the data from prediction markets suggest that history is unlikely to repeat itself. Trump was impeached twice during his previous term, but the Senate cleared him both times. The low odds indicated by the prediction markets reflect the current political landscape and the challenges faced by those advocating for impeachment.