Crypto Market Volatile as 90-Day Tariff Pause Ends, Bitcoin Options Expire

The crypto market is currently experiencing heightened volatility as the 90-day pause on tariffs, implemented by former U.S. President Donald Trump, is set to conclude in 13 days on July 9. This pause, which began on April 9, has provided temporary relief to global trade tensions, but its end is causing investors to adopt a cautious approach. The market is under selling pressure, with Bitcoin holding steady at $107,500, while altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin are trading 2-5% lower. The expiration of $17 billion in Bitcoin options on Friday is also adding to the market's uncertainty.

Macroeconomic factors, such as the SLR Exemption and the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, are expected to drive further market momentum. However, the return of country-specific tariffs, including a potential 50% tariff on EU imports, looms as the US-China trade deal gains traction. These anticipated changes include the reimplementation of country-specific "reciprocal tariffs," a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, and the maintenance of a global 10% baseline tariff rate.

Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as the broader crypto market sentiment reflects a cautious approach. The corporate race for Bitcoin reserves has already begun, with strong Bitcoin ETF inflows highlighting robust institutional demand. Net inflows have already crossed $1.7 billion this week, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the charge. This institutional interest is a significant driver of market momentum, despite the current volatility.

The expiration of Bitcoin options on Friday is another critical factor influencing market sentiment. A total of 139,392 Bitcoin option contracts, with a notional value of $14.9 billion, are set to expire. The put-call ratio is currently at 0.74, indicating that bulls are still in control, while the maximum pain point is at $102,000. This suggests that while there is some bearish sentiment, the overall market remains bullish.

Recent commentary from analysts also suggests that Bitcoin is experiencing mixed sentiment, with traders seeing flat or break-even results despite market momentum. Key resistance at $110,000 is noted as a significant level that may be difficult to breach. This resistance level is crucial for determining the market's next move, as breaking through it could signal further bullish momentum.

Investors are also hopeful for potential Fed rate cuts in July, which could provide additional support to the market. However, the current geopolitical tensions and the looming tariff changes are keeping investors on the sidelines, waiting for more clarity on the trade situation. The broader market rally, with the S&P 500 climbing approximately 1,200 points since April 9, has been driven by the temporary relief from tariffs. However, the end of this pause could bring renewed volatility to the markets.

In summary, the crypto market is facing increased volatility as the 90-day tariff pause nears its end. Macroeconomic factors, institutional demand, and the expiration of Bitcoin options are all contributing to the market's uncertainty. Investors are adopting a cautious approach, waiting for new trade agreements and potential Fed rate cuts to provide more clarity on the market's direction. The return of country-specific tariffs and the anticipated changes in trade policies are key factors that will influence the market's future movements.

The conclusion of the 90-day tariff pause instituted during the Trump era has led to increased volatility in the crypto market. Major exchanges, including BTCC, have responded by updating their operational protocols to reassure investors. The U.S. government and its economic advisors are central figures in these developments, steering policy actions and adjustments. BTCC, known for emphasizing financial transparency, reported a 135% reserve ratio, exceeding industry standards. This capacity reassures stakeholders against increasing market uncertainties.

Cryptocurrency prices, notably Bitcoin, have faced recent downward pressure following geopolitical events coinciding with the tariff schedule. Institutional investors are observed displaying risk aversion, shifting towards safer assets like the USD and gold. Stablecoin infrastructures, such as USDC's, have demonstrated resilience in this volatile environment.

As the market adapts to these changes, a cautious stance is noticeable among developers and investors. Stakeholders continue analyzing macroeconomic impacts, addressing potential regulatory outcomes. Historical trends suggest periods of macroeconomic uncertainty often trigger shifts in asset management strategies.