Crypto Market Structure and RSI Rebalancing in Key Coins: Identifying Undervalued Momentum in BTC, ETH, SOL, INJ, and FIL

The cryptocurrency market in September 2025 is navigating a delicate balance between macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional-driven optimism. With the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot and a $3.5 trillion total market cap, investors are recalibrating their strategies to capitalize on undervalued momentum across major assets. This analysis examines the RSI and market structure of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Injective (INJ), and Filecoin (FIL) to identify actionable opportunities.

Bitcoin (BTC): Overbought but Structurally Resilient

Bitcoin's RSI of 77.88 places it in overbought territory, a level often associated with short-term corrections2025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report - CoinGecko^[1]. However, its price action suggests resilience. At $112,282, BTC faces a critical support level at $106.9K, which has historically held during prior pullbacksBTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE – all at critical levels – what …^[3]. The 200-period SMA at $105.5K further reinforces this zone as a potential floor. While overbought conditions may trigger volatility, the absence of a breakdown below $106.9K could signal continued bullish momentum, especially with ETF inflows exceeding $28 billion in 2025Binance Research: 10 Charts Defining Crypto Market Trends in 2025^[5]. Historical backtests of buying BTC at RSI overbought levels (RSI >70) and holding for 30 days show mixed outcomes, with BTC outperforming SOL in cumulative returns and risk-adjusted metrics.

Ethereum (ETH): Testing Resistance Amid Staking Growth

Ethereum's RSI of 66.56 indicates a resistance zone as ETH trades at $4,327.742025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report - CoinGecko^[1]. The $2,800 level remains a psychological barrier, but on-chain metrics tell a different story: 35.8 million ETH staked (29.7% of the supply) and the Pectra upgrade's success have bolstered institutional confidenceBinance Research: 10 Charts Defining Crypto Market Trends in 2025^[5]. A breakout above $4,500 could trigger a retest of the 2025 high of $3,337, though a failure to hold $4,000 may force a retracement toward $3,800.

Solana (SOL): Rebound from Oversold with Volume Divergence

Solana's RSI of 73.47 mirrors BTC's overbought status, but its fundamentals diverge. SOL's rebound from oversold territory (RSI ~55) has been supported by daily transactions stabilizing at 1 billion and validator growthCrypto Market Forecast 2025: BTC, ETH, XRP & SOL Made Simple^[2]. However, DEX volume on Solana-specific platforms like Raydium (-73.4% QoQ) raises concerns about liquidity. A consolidation above $210 could reignite bullish momentum, but traders must watch for a breakdown below $195, which would invalidate the current uptrend2025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report - CoinGecko^[1]. Historical backtests of buying SOL at RSI overbought levels reveal significant drawdowns, underscoring the need for additional risk controls like stop-loss thresholds.

Injective (INJ): Neutral Sentiment and Range-Bound Potential

Injective's RSI of 57.17 positions it in neutral territory, with support at $12.15 and resistance at $14.88INJ Price Surge: Bullish Technicals Signal $16.99 Target by …^[4]. The 20-period SMA at $13.43 suggests a potential pivot point. A breakout above $14.88 could target $16.99—a 25% gain—driven by its growing DeFi adoptionCrypto Market Forecast 2025: BTC, ETH, XRP & SOL Made Simple^[2]. However, a failure to hold $13.43 may trigger a test of the $11.91 support, where institutional accumulation has been observedINJ Price Surge: Bullish Technicals Signal $16.99 Target by …^[4].

Filecoin (FIL): Critical Decision Point at $2.51

Filecoin's RSI of 56.44 indicates neutrality, but its price action is highly contested. At $2.51, FIL sits at a pivot point between immediate resistance ($2.56) and robust support ($2.41–$2.42)2025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report - CoinGecko^[1]. Institutional buyers have repeatedly defended the $2.14 level, suggesting a floor if the $2.47 support fails. A sustained close above $2.56 would validate bullish continuation, while a drop below $2.41 could reignite bearish sentiment2025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report - CoinGecko^[1].

Macro and Institutional Drivers

The broader market is shaped by two forces: Fed policy and institutional adoption. The recent rate cut has spurred a 9.9% YTD market cap increase, with DEX volumes hitting $876.3 billion in Q2 20252025 Q2 Crypto Industry Report - CoinGecko^[1]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance easing to 57.2% signals a rotation into altcoins like INJ and FIL, which are gaining traction through real-world use casesBinance Research: 10 Charts Defining Crypto Market Trends in 2025^[5].

Conclusion: Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

• BTC: Hold for a pullback to $106.9K; avoid aggressive shorting without a breakdown.
• ETH: Target a breakout above $4,500; use $3,800 as a stop-loss.
• SOL: Watch for volume divergence; prioritize longs above $210.
• INJ: Buy dips toward $12.15; target $14.88 as a near-term goal.
• FIL: Aggressive buyers may test $2.41; avoid longs without a close above $2.56.

The market's rebalancing phase favors disciplined traders who align with structural levels and institutional flows. As the Fed's dovish stance and DEX growth continue to reshape the landscape, undervalued momentum in INJ and FIL presents compelling asymmetric risk-reward setups. Historical backtests of RSI-based strategies highlight the importance of pairing momentum signals with risk controls—such as stop-losses or profit-taking thresholds—to mitigate sharp reversals.