Crypto Market Structure Bill May Be Postponed to 2027 for Approval, Implementation Expected by 2029

The U.S. crypto market structure bill, which aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, may be postponed to 2027 for approval, with implementation expected by 2029, according to TD Cowen. The firm's analysis indicates that political dynamics and legislative complexities are complicating the bill's timely passage. This delay creates uncertainty for the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency industry as it seeks regulatory clarity according to analysis.

TD Cowen's managing director, Jaret Seiberg, noted that Democrats may lack the incentive to fast-track the bill before the 2026 midterm elections. The firm believes Democrats are likely to delay passage if they believe they can regain control of the House in the upcoming elections according to market analysis. This strategic calculation suggests that the timing of the bill's passage is closely tied to political outcomes and internal party dynamics.

Political hurdles are further complicated by Democratic demands for conflict-of-interest restrictions affecting senior officials. These provisions would bar senior government officials and their families from owning or operating crypto businesses according to TD Cowen's report. The inclusion of such language has been described as a potential "nonstarter" for President Donald Trump, who has significant financial ties to the crypto industry according to market analysis.

Why Did This Happen?

The delay in the bill's passage reflects broader legislative challenges. The House has already passed its version of a market structure bill, but momentum has slowed in the Senate according to TD Cowen's analysis. A Senate filibuster requires 60 votes, necessitating support from at least seven Democrats even if all Republicans back the bill. In practice, it could require eight or nine Democratic votes, as some Republicans are expected to oppose the legislation according to market reports.

This dynamic gives Democrats leverage to delay passage until after the midterms. A later enactment date would likely push implementation beyond the next presidential inauguration, allowing Democratic regulators to shape the final rules if a Democrat wins the White House according to analysis.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts and industry participants are closely monitoring the political and legislative landscape. The cryptocurrency industry prefers the law to take effect under Trump and is generally agnostic to conflict-of-interest provisions according to market analysis. This mismatch in preferences creates friction and complicates the bill's passage.

TD Cowen's analysis suggests that a potential compromise could involve making the conflict-of-interest provisions effective three years after enactment. This would push the provisions past the next inauguration, meaning they would never apply to Trump according to market analysis. However, Democrats would need to accept this deal unless it also pushes the rest of the bill out three years, which could be a significant hurdle.

The proposed crypto market structure legislation is widely viewed as the next major regulatory milestone after the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins. It would establish a clear framework for how digital assets are regulated in the U.S., including agency oversight and asset classification according to market analysis.

What Are the Broader Implications?

The delay in the bill's passage has significant implications for the cryptocurrency industry. Institutional investors typically hesitate to enter markets lacking clear rules according to industry reports. Traditional financial firms require regulatory certainty before allocating significant capital. The delay could slow institutional adoption of digital assets. However, some market participants might benefit from extended current arrangements.

TD Cowen's analysis suggests a 2029 implementation date if passage occurs in 2027. This timeline allows extensive preparation for compliance requirements. Companies gain additional years to adjust business models and systems according to market analysis. Regulatory clarity eventually arrives despite the extended timeline. The cryptocurrency industry has demonstrated resilience during previous periods of uncertainty.

The potential delay in the bill's passage reflects a complex interplay of political and legislative factors. While delays create uncertainty, they might reduce market disruption through gradual implementation. The cryptocurrency industry must navigate extended regulatory ambiguity while preparing for eventual comprehensive rules.