Crypto Market Shows Resilience Post-Bitcoin Halving, Investors Hold Bitcoin Positions

Global economist Thomas Perfumo has noted that the crypto market has shown resilience, performing better than initially anticipated. He highlighted that the timing of recent tariffs coincides with the 12-month mark post-Bitcoin halving, a period historically associated with the peak of the crypto cycle. However, the current environment is unprecedented, and there is evidence suggesting that crypto may be breaking away from its cyclical behavior.

Perfumo observed that investors are largely maintaining their positions in Bitcoin rather than shifting to other cryptocurrencies. This cautious approach is driven by a need for more certainty in the medium term before making further investments. He identified two key advantages for Bitcoin in the current market: its historical status as a store of value and its deeper connection to traditional investment flows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Perfumo cautioned that any further pullbacks in Bitcoin could negatively impact altcoins, which have higher beta and could experience more aggressive selling. He noted that for altcoins to recover, there needs to be a catalyst driving demand forward, which is currently lacking. This has led to investors reducing risk and holding back on new investments.

Despite the cautious outlook, Perfumo expressed a cautiously optimistic view on the flows in and out of Bitcoin ETFs. He does not anticipate significant fallout from potential pauses in crypto IPOs, such as Circle. Venture capitalists have also noted that it is too early to gauge the full impact of tariffs and the macro environment on crypto investing, with potential effects varying between late-stage and early-stage funding rounds.

While the crypto industry appears to be resilient despite its risky nature, Perfumo advised proceeding with caution, as the situation could change rapidly. The overall sentiment remains positive, with a focus on navigating the current uncertainties in the market.