Crypto Market May Peak June 2026 Says Real Vision CEO

Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, has made a notable prediction regarding the trajectory of the crypto market. He compares the current cycle to that of 2017, suggesting that the crypto market is likely to peak by June 2026. This forecast is grounded in macroeconomic factors, including a prolonged business cycle and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Pal's analysis posits that unadjusted interest rates will significantly influence the timeline of this cycle, potentially extending the bull market for key cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The current economic environment, according to Pal, is favorable for institutional participation in the crypto market. A weakened U.S. dollar is expected to support an extended bull cycle, which could attract more investors and capital deployments. This outlook is particularly encouraging for long-term investors, who may see increased enthusiasm and potential gains in the market.

Pal's predictions have immediate implications for the crypto market, including a growing appetite for risk among institutional investors. This shift could drive up the prices of major cryptocurrencies, signaling a prolonged growth phase with significant financial implications. The environment is conducive to investment, especially in Layer 1 projects, which are anticipated to experience substantial price movements.

Pal's outlook is based on historical trends and current macroeconomic conditions. The prolonged cycle may lead to substantial interest rate impacts, affecting market dynamics and potentially inducing diverse regulatory responses. Pal noted that the current cycle is "spookily similar to 2017," but he is forecasting a longer cycle this time around. He attributes this to the business cycle score, which is "still below 50" and will "take a while to climb up." This suggests that the current cycle may extend beyond the typical duration observed in previous cycles.

Historically, such cycles have led to significant growth in crypto assets. Pal's comparison with 2017 highlights the potential for a gradual, robust price increase followed by a parabolic rise. The prediction aligns with past market behaviors triggered by macroeconomic conditions, like USD weakness and low interest rates. Major assets, including BTC and ETH, are positioned for strong performance, underpinning potential long-term market growth.

Pal's forecast has sparked renewed institutional investment in cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum. These shifts point towards a potentially extended bull market, deepening market liquidity and reducing volatility. Financially, Pal's projections suggest an influx of capital into leading Layer 1 protocols, including Solana and Avalanche. This movement is expected to bolster on-chain metrics, particularly in the DeFi sector.