Crypto Market Mimics 2017 Pattern as Bitcoin Follows Similar Trajectory

Raoul Pal, CEO of the crypto research platform Real Vision, has observed that the current crypto market is following a pattern that is eerily similar to that of 2017. In 2017, Bitcoin experienced a steady uptrend throughout the year, culminating in a dramatic surge in December. Pal believes that the present market conditions are mirroring this pattern, with Bitcoin's price movements closely following the trajectory seen in 2017.

Pal's analysis is grounded in a macroeconomic model he uses to track the global economy's broader cycle. He noted that the business cycle score, which is currently below 50, suggests that the crypto market could be in for a prolonged period of growth. This score, which generally takes time to climb, indicates that the current cycle may extend further than initially anticipated.

One of the key factors Pal highlighted as a potential catalyst for an extended crypto cycle is the weakening US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, currently sitting at 98.77. This weakening of the dollar makes Bitcoin more attractive as both a speculative investment and an alternative currency, given the inverse correlation between the two. Pal speculated that the current crypto cycle could extend into the second quarter of 2026, given the weakening dollar.

Pal also drew parallels between the current market conditions and those of 2020. In 2020, Bitcoin began the year at $7,174, dropped to $5,227 by March, and then rebounded to reach $28,993 by the end of the year. This volatility and subsequent growth suggest that the market could be in an earlier growth phase than many assume. Pal believes that the current market conditions may more closely resemble those of 2020 rather than 2021, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of growth.

Pal emphasized the importance of attracting larger players to sustain the market's expansion. During a recent trip to the Middle East, he met with Sovereign Wealth Funds and found that most had a bullish outlook on crypto. The mandate across the region is focused on AI and blockchain technology. This includes not only using Bitcoin as a reserve asset but also building government infrastructure on blockchain technology. Pal's insights provide a comprehensive view of the current crypto market, highlighting the similarities to past cycles and the potential for extended growth. His analysis underscores the importance of macroeconomic factors and the need to attract larger players to sustain the market's expansion.