Crypto Market Drops 4.2% as Bitcoin Holds Steady, Ethereum Falls 2.1%

The crypto market experienced a downturn on July 4, 2025, with nearly all of the top 100 coins by market capitalization seeing price declines over the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies dropped by 4.2% to $3.43 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.4%, trading at $108,836. Ethereum (ETH), however, saw a more significant drop of 2.1%, currently trading at $2,547. Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced the highest decrease in this category, falling by 4.4% to $0.1673. Tron (TRX) was the only coin in the green, with a marginal increase of 0.4%, trading at $0.2856. Among the top 100 coins, five saw increases, with Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) leading the way with a 1.8% rise to $0.01576. Conversely, Pepe (PEPE) saw the highest decrease, dropping by 8.3% to $0.000009791.

The market sentiment remains mostly unchanged within neutral territory, as indicated by the Fear and Greed Index, which stayed at 55. Investors are awaiting additional news and signals that could prompt further market movements. The recent inflows into US BTC and ETH spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suggest a continued interest in cryptocurrencies despite the current market conditions. On July 3, US BTC spot ETFs recorded inflows of $601.94 million, the highest positive daily flow in six weeks. Similarly, US ETH ETFs saw inflows of $148.57 million on the same day, significantly higher than the previous outflow of $1.82 million on July 2.

Analysts are closely watching several factors that could influence the market in the coming weeks. These include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, macroeconomic data releases, and further geopolitical developments. According to Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive.xyz, traders are betting on a significant market movement in July. He noted that June's price swings were largely driven by geopolitical events, but the muted response in monthly volatility suggests that traders anticipated limited fallout from these events. Dawson also highlighted that ETH has a stronger momentum narrative compared to BTC, but BTC's options market is poised for a decisive move. Upside catalysts for BTC to reach $130,000 include potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and de-escalation in the Middle East. Downside catalysts that could push the price down to $90,000 include a hawkish Fed tone, hot inflation prints, increased tensions in the Middle East, ETF outflows, and miner capitulation. Dawson predicted a 10% chance that BTC will surpass $130,000 by the end of August and a 15% chance that ETH will surpass $3,300 in the same period.

Despite the current market downturn, analysts expect the prices to continue increasing overall in the medium term, with short-term dips marking minor decreases before additional pushes higher. The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's actions and macroeconomic data, along with the continued interest in cryptocurrencies as indicated by ETF inflows, suggests that the market remains dynamic and responsive to various factors. As the market awaits further developments, investors and traders are advised to stay informed and prepared for potential volatility.