Crypto Market Cools as Bitcoin Stays Within Death Cross: Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $90,600 as it failed to break above the $94,000 resistance level. The total crypto market cap stands at $3.06 trillion, down 1.14% from recent highs. Bearish technical indicators suggest further downward pressure is likely in the near term.

The broader crypto market is showing signs of cooling off. Prices of top 100 coins remain underperforming, with 80% in negative territory. This follows a brief ETF-fueled rally earlier in the week.

Despite the bearish trend, prediction markets remain bullish. On Myriad, traders estimate only a 4.9% chance of a new 'Crypto Winter' in 2026. This suggests continued confidence among market participants despite the recent pullback.

Why Did Bitcoin ETF Flows Reverse After Strong Start to 2026?

Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflows at the start of the year. The first two trading days brought in $1.2 billion, the largest single-day inflow since October at $697 million. However, this momentum reversed quickly. On the third day, $243 million flowed out, followed by $476 million in outflows the next day.

This reversal points to the fragility of institutional demand. While initial inflows suggest strong interest, the rapid outflows indicate uncertainty or profit-taking among investors. The mixed flows highlight the cautious approach institutions are taking.

What Do Technical Indicators Say About Bitcoin’s Price Outlook?

Bitcoin’s price action remains within a death cross pattern, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA. This bearish technical signal typically indicates prolonged sideways or downward movement.

The current price of $90,673 is below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with the gap widening. This suggests further downward pressure is likely. A golden cross, the opposite of a death cross, remains unlikely in the near term.

Support levels are currently holding between $88,000 and $90,000. If this level breaks, the next major support is expected to be around $80,000. Resistance remains clustered around $94,000–$97,000. A breakout above $94,000 would signal renewed bullish momentum.

What Are Analysts Watching for a Market Recovery?

Analysts are closely monitoring several factors that could signal a market recovery. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is currently at 24.2, just below the 25 threshold that confirms a strong trend. A rise above 25 could indicate a stronger bearish trend gaining momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is at 52.4, placing it in neutral territory. This suggests a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a potential period of consolidation before a clear direction emerges.

Despite the bearish technical outlook, prediction markets remain relatively optimistic. Traders on Myriad expect a market recovery but are not predicting a major bullish run. The odds of a new Bitcoin all-time high before July sit at just 20%.

Analysts like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee anticipate a pullback in the first half of 2026 before a rally in the second half. This would break the historical pattern of crypto winters occurring in the fourth year of a bull cycle.

Until Bitcoin can reclaim $94,000 with conviction, the market is expected to remain in a sideways grind with occasional dips testing the $88,000–$89,000 support. The death cross does not guarantee disaster, but it does signal that the easy money has been made.