Crypto Market Caution: Why the Absence of CoinGlass Bull Market Signals Signals Investor Prudence

As the cryptocurrency market navigates late 2025, a notable absence of traditional bull market signals has emerged, prompting a shift toward cautious investment strategies. CoinGlass, a leading analytics platform, reports that none of Bitcoin's 30 major bull-market peak indicators have been triggered despite multiple all-time highs and significant price movements. This divergence between price action and structural metrics underscores a broader trend of investor prudence, driven by evolving risk management practices and a maturing derivatives market.

CoinGlass's 2025 methodology employs a suite of on-chain and macroeconomic indicators to gauge market sentiment. Key metrics include the MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin's market value relative to its realized value, historically signaling overvaluation when it exceeds 7.5. Similarly, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric identifies extreme profit-taking when it enters the "Euphoria" zone above 0.75. The Puell Multiple, assessing miner profitability against a 365-day average, indicates overvaluation when it surpasses 4.0. These tools, alongside Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and logarithmic growth curve analysis, form a comprehensive framework for detecting speculative bubbles and structural shifts in the crypto derivatives market.

However, as of November 25, 2025, CoinGlass data reveals that none of these indicators have reached critical thresholds. The Bitcoin Trend Indicator stands at 6.14, below the overbought threshold of 7. The Bitcoin AHR999 Top Escape Indicator and Bubble Index further suggest the market remains far from the speculative mania observed in previous cycles. This suggests that while the market is strong, it has not yet entered the euphoric phase typically preceding a peak.

The absence of triggered indicators has led to a more measured market sentiment. Investors are interpreting the data as a sign that the current bull cycle is still in its accumulation phase rather than a speculative frenzy. This is reflected in the average progress of 43.39% toward historical peak thresholds in metrics like miner revenue pressure and holder profitability. Such data reinforces the view that the market is not yet overextended, allowing for continued growth without immediate risk of a sharp reversal.

In response to this environment, investors have adopted nuanced risk management strategies. With structural metrics below historical peaks, there's a shift toward hedging tools and diversified exposure through institutional-grade products like CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. Additionally, the decline in risk-taking among U.S. investors, with fewer considering new crypto investments, highlights a move toward conservative portfolio management. Regulatory clarity under frameworks like MiCA and MiFID has also prompted compliance-driven strategies, emphasizing victim-focused accountability and reduced corporate penalties.

The absence of CoinGlass bull market signals in late 2025 reflects a maturing market where investor prudence and sophisticated risk management are prioritized. While the potential for further growth remains, the cautious approach underscores a shift from speculative trading to value-based accumulation, supported by institutional infrastructure and regulatory advancements. As the market continues to evolve, monitoring these indicators will remain crucial for navigating the next phase of the crypto cycle.