Crypto Market Braces for $446M Unlock Wave, Testing October Resilience

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a wave of token unlocks in the third week of October 2025, with FastToken (FTN), Connex (CONX), and Arbitrum (ARB) leading the charge. Collectively, these projects will release tokens valued at over $446 million, potentially triggering short-term volatility as fresh supply enters circulation.

FastToken, the native token of the Bahamut blockchain, will unlock 20 million FTN on October 18, representing 2.04% of its circulating supply. Valued at $40.2 million, the tokens will be allocated entirely to founders, raising concerns about immediate sell pressure. FastToken operates on a Proof of Stake and Activity (PoSA) consensus mechanism, aiming to bridge decentralized finance with real-world applications. While past unlocks, such as an August 2025 release of 20 million FTN, showed minimal price impact due to high pre-existing circulation, analysts warn this event could test market resilience.

Connex, a Web3 professional networking platform, will unlock 2.32 million CONX on October 15, valued at $32.4 million. The distribution is split among the foundation (1 million), ecosystem (822,500), and community treasury (500,000). This approach aims to balance immediate liquidity with long-term ecosystem growth. Connex's tokenomics emphasize transparency and utility, allowing holders to use CONX for governance and payments. However, the 2.32% unlock represents a significant portion of its current 1.15 million circulating supply, potentially amplifying short-term volatility.

Arbitrum, Ethereum's Layer-2 scaling solution, will release 92.65 million ARB on October 16, valued at $31.6 million. The tokens will be distributed to team members (56.13 million), advisors, and investors (36.52 million). As one of the largest unlocks of the week, this event could weigh on ARB's price, especially given its 1.99% circulating supply allocation. Despite its robust adoption and developer activity, the timing coincides with broader scrutiny of Layer-2 projects' scaling efficiency and fee structures.

The combined unlock value of $446 million underscores the risks of increased supply in a market still grappling with macroeconomic uncertainties. Historical data suggests projects with strong fundamentals-such as transparent tokenomics, real-world utility, or staking incentives-tend to weather unlock-related volatility. For example, BANANA and STRX saw muted sell-offs after unlocks due to steady demand from staking and governance activities.

Investors are also monitoring secondary unlocks, including deBridge (DBR), Starknet (STRK), and ZKsync (ZK), which will add further liquidity pressure. However, the focus remains on FTN, CONX, and ARB, whose combined impact could shape broader market sentiment in late October.

Source: [1] FastToken (FTN), Connex (CONX), and Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlocks in October 2025 (https://beincrypto.com/crypto-token-unlocks-in-the-third-week-of-october/)

[2] FTN, CONX, and ARB Token Unlocks This Week (https://www.gate.com/news/detail/14705807)

[3] FTX-Linked Tokens Face Major Unlocks (https://phemex.com/news/article/ftn-conx-and-arb-tokens-set-for-major-unlocking-events-next-week-25949)

[4] Major Token Unlocks and Market Fundamentals (https://www.coinrank.io/crypto/major-token-unlocks-this-week-what-investors-should-know/)

[5] FastToken's Unlock and Market Reaction (https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/fasttoken/latest-updates/)

[6] Token Unlock Schedules and Vesting Explained (https://cryptorank.io/token-unlock)

[7] Post-Unlock Market Behavior Analysis (https://coinedition.com/trumps-321m-unlock-big-but-is-conxs-87-supply-unlock-riskier/)