Crypto Market's $446M Token Unlock Stress Test in October 2025

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a wave of token unlocks in the third week of October 2025, with over $446 million in new supply set to enter circulation. Three projects-FastToken (FTN), Connex (CONX), and Arbitrum (ARB)-are at the center of this activity, each releasing significant token allocations that could influence price dynamics and investor sentiment. These unlocks, combined with broader market trends, highlight the delicate balance between liquidity expansion and price stability in the crypto ecosystem.

leads the charge, unlocking 20 million FTN tokens on October 18, valued at $40.2 million. This represents 2.04% of the current circulating supply and is entirely allocated to founders. FTN, the native token of the Bahamut blockchain, operates on a Proof of Stake and Activity (PoSA) consensus mechanism, aiming to bridge decentralized finance with real-world applications. The concentrated release raises concerns about short-term selling pressure, particularly if founders liquidate their shares.

follows on October 15 with a $32.42 million unlock of 2.32 million tokens, or 2.32% of its total supply. The tokens will be distributed among the foundation, ecosystem, and community treasury. Connex, a Web3 professional network, emphasizes transparency and fair value exchange. However, the high proportion of unlocked tokens relative to its small circulating supply (1.15 million) could amplify volatility, especially if market participants perceive the release as a bearish signal.

rounds out the major unlocks on October 16, releasing 92.65 million tokens worth $31.63 million. This accounts for 1.99% of the current circulating supply and is primarily directed to team members, advisors, and investors. As a Layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum, Arbitrum's tokenomics are closely watched for their impact on network adoption. Analysts note that while the unlock could temporarily depress prices, the project's strong fundamentals-such as growing transaction volumes-may mitigate long-term risks.

The third week of October also sees unlocks from deBridge (DBR), Starknet (STRK), and Sei (SEI), adding further liquidity to the market. TokenUnlock data indicates that these events collectively test investor resilience, as large-scale unlocks often correlate with short-term price declines. For example, a 2025 study by CryptoRank found that tokens with unlocks exceeding 1% of circulating supply experienced an average 8-12% drop in the week following the release.

Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing broader trends that could offset unlock-driven volatility. The start of Q4 historically favors altcoins, with increased institutional interest and regulatory clarity acting as tailwinds. Additionally, the prolonged accumulation phase of many altcoins-some trading sideways for over three years-suggests that a breakout could follow the unlocking period. However, traders are advised to monitor on-chain metrics and trading volume to gauge market absorption capacity.

Investors are also weighing the implications of these unlocks in the context of macroeconomic factors. With Bitcoin nearing all-time highs and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts on the horizon, capital rotation into altcoins could cushion the impact of increased supply. Nonetheless, the risk of profit-taking by early investors remains a key concern, particularly for projects with concentrated token allocations.

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