This Crypto Expert Thinks a 70% Bitcoin Crash Is Coming—Here’s Why He’s Not Panicking

WATCH: The Math That Could Predict Bitcoin

What if the next big Bitcoin crash is already baked into the system—and it’s not a matter of if, but when? Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and one of the most analytically rigorous voices in crypto, has a chilling but practical message for investors in a new episode of AInvest’s Capital and Power podcast. His thesis? The clock is ticking on this cycle—and if you’re still buying the hype, you might be the exit liquidity.

Cowen isn’t some crypto bro with laser eyes and a Twitter thread. He’s an academic-turned-quant who uses custom-built risk models, long-cycle analysis, and on-chain metrics to call the moves others miss. When he speaks, serious investors take notes. And in this conversation with host Adam Shapiro, he lays out a framework that’s as sobering as it is useful.

Let’s start with the big warning: Cowen believes we’re closing in on a cycle peak, likely in Q4 of 2025. “Last cycle… topped out in November of 2021,” he notes. It’s a consistent pattern: the post-halving year brings the boom, and then the midterm year brings the pain. “That's when Bitcoin normally, unfortunately, goes down,” he adds. Based on his modeling, we’re within striking distance of a top—and the next phase isn’t pretty.

How bad could it get? Try a 70% drawdown from the top. That’s not just fear-mongering—it’s math. Previous bear markets have brought declines of 94%, 87%, and 77%. The next one might be a bit milder, but “not mild enough,” Cowen warns. And the worst part? Most people won’t see it coming until they’ve lost their shirt.

But Cowen isn’t all doom. He’s a strategist—and he has a system. At the center of it is his proprietary" risk metric" model he developed in 2019 to guide DCA (dollar-cost averaging) entries and exits based on normalized volatility and historical data. “What makes the most amount of sense is when it goes below 0.5 risk, that's when you wanna start just DCA-ing blindly into Bitcoin,” Cowen says.

Right now, that risk score is hovering around 0.57. Translation? It’s a gray zone. Not time to panic-sell, but also not a great entry point. He suggests a tiered buying approach—buy some at 0.4 to 0.5 risk, get more aggressive below 0.3, and start scaling out as risk rises.

This isn’t hypothetical. Cowen has back-tested the strategy and says that a $100/week DCA model weighted by his risk metric since 2019 would’ve outperformed traditional weekly DCA by a wide margin. He even built a tool for it.

The real danger, Cowen explains, comes from systemic leverage—especially the way stablecoins are used as collateral to buy more crypto. He compares it directly to the 2008 financial crisis: “The smart guys in crypto thought they figured out how to get 20% risk-free… which makes absolutely no sense.”

The result? Fragile cycles built on unsustainable debt. “Anytime you're issuing a lot of debt and leverage to buy risk assets, it's a recipe for disaster eventually,” Cowen says. He admits that even when the red flags are obvious, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. “It’s easy to see the risk… but the markets didn’t care about Luna until 2022, even though the red flags were there in 2021.”

And what about altcoins? Cowen doesn’t mince words. Most of them are “likely going to zero.” He sees each cycle’s hype—ICOs, meme coins, NFTs—as marketing bait that hurts retail investors more than it helps. If Bitcoin survives, a few altcoins might too. But if Bitcoin fails? Game over for everyone.

His portfolio reflects that realism. Cowen holds more in traditional assets—gold, cash, silver, T-bills—than he does in crypto. He owns more stocks than coins. And when the market turns, he wants liquidity: “The worst feeling is watching a 70–80% drop with no dry powder.”

Cowen’s outlook for 2026? Bearish. He expects the market bottom to arrive roughly a year after the 2025 peak, in line with past cycles. Until then, his advice is blunt: stay disciplined, avoid leverage, and don’t chase euphoric rallies. Timing the exact top is impossible—but preparing for the crash is not.

If you’re holding Bitcoin, thinking about buying, or just curious whether this rocket ship still has fuel—this episode of Capital and Power is essential listening. Cowen’s take is clear-eyed, brutally honest, and built on more than vibes and hope. In a market ruled by emotion, it’s a refreshing dose of strategy. Tune in before the next leg down.