Crypto Enthusiasts Bet 89% On GENIUS Act Passage By 2026

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are actively wagering on the likelihood that the GENIUS Act, a landmark US stablecoin regulation bill, will become law after its recent Senate approval. The online prediction platform Polymarket has set the odds at an 89% probability that the bill will pass both the House of Representatives and be signed by President Donald Trump before 2026. This betting market was initiated about 18 hours after the Senate passed the bill with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday.

The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) establishes comprehensive federal standards for stablecoin issuers, including requirements for full reserve backing, monthly audits, and strict anti-money laundering compliance. The legislation aims to modernize the US financial system by enabling banks, fintech companies, and even major retailers to issue their own stablecoins or integrate them into payment networks.

Despite bipartisan Senate support, the bill faces uncertainty in the House, where Republicans hold a narrow majority. There is speculation that amendments might be introduced, especially concerning concerns over President Trump’s connections to the crypto sector, such as ties to World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin USD1. Previous attempts to add anti-corruption provisions linked to Trump were rejected in the Senate.

President Trump has publicly indicated willingness to sign the GENIUS Act “with no add ons” if the House passes it swiftly. Meanwhile, the House is also considering the CLARITY Act, which would clarify regulatory roles over digital assets. Aligning the Senate and House versions of stablecoin legislation could take time, as they differ in regulatory authority distribution.

Polymarket’s betting odds reflect the confidence of some crypto users in the bill’s eventual enactment but do not guarantee legislative outcomes. The platform captures how much participants are willing to stake on potential scenarios rather than providing a formal prediction of congressional or presidential actions.

The passage of the GENIUS Act marks a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, signaling a shift toward federal recognition and regulatory clarity for stablecoins, which are viewed as a bridge between digital currencies and traditional finance. The bill’s enactment could catalyze growth in the US stablecoin market, projected to expand substantially in the coming years.

Polymarket, a prominent prediction market platform, has launched a new betting market following the U.S. Senate's approval of the GENIUS Act, a significant piece of legislation aimed at regulating stablecoins. The GENIUS Act, which stands for "Guaranteeing Economic Stability and Innovation in the United States," seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, including licensing requirements, 100% reserve backing, and regular audits. This move by Polymarket allows users to bet on the likelihood of the bill's passage and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.

The platform's users have assigned an 89% probability to the GENIUS Act becoming law before 2026. This high confidence level reflects the market's optimism about the bill's prospects, given the recent Senate approval and the growing recognition of the need for stablecoin regulation. The GENIUS Act aims to address the challenges posed by price volatility in the cryptocurrency market, making stablecoins a more viable option for commercial transactions. By providing a stable value, stablecoins can facilitate smoother and more predictable transactions, thereby enhancing their utility as a medium of exchange.

The introduction of the GENIUS Act has sparked significant interest in the cryptocurrency community, with many traders and analysts closely monitoring its progress. The bill's potential passage could have far-reaching implications for the stablecoin market, as it would provide a clear regulatory framework that could foster innovation and growth. The GENIUS Act's provisions, including licensing requirements and reserve backing, are designed to ensure the stability and security of stablecoins, thereby enhancing investor confidence and promoting wider adoption.

Polymarket's decision to open a betting market for the GENIUS Act underscores the platform's role as a leading prediction market, allowing users to express their views on future events and potentially profit from their insights. The platform's users have shown strong confidence in the bill's passage, reflecting the broader market sentiment. As the GENIUS Act advances through the legislative process, it will be closely watched by industry stakeholders, policymakers, and investors alike. The outcome of this legislation could shape the future of stablecoins and the broader cryptocurrency market, paving the way for greater stability, innovation, and adoption.