Crypto Daybook Americas: Trump’s Fed Outburst Fails to Jolt Bitcoin

In April 2025, President Donald Trump’s verbal assault on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—dubbing him “Too Late Jerome” and demanding immediate rate cuts—sparked a brief surge in Bitcoin’s price. Yet, the cryptocurrency market soon returned to its characteristic volatility, with Bitcoin consolidating near $84,000 rather than embarking on a sustained rally. While Trump’s rhetoric initially fueled hopes of lower interest rates, broader macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds kept Bitcoin in a sideways grind, underscoring the complexities of its relationship with policy shifts.

The Volatility Spike—and Its Limits

Trump’s April 15 Truth Social posts, which framed the Fed as “too slow” to combat inflation, sent Bitcoin soaring 3.2% to $66,584 within hours. Ethereum followed suit, rising 2.8% to $3,290, as traders bet on reduced inflationary pressures from potential rate cuts. Trading volumes surged to $23.5 billion for Bitcoin and $10.8 billion for Ethereum, reflecting short-term optimism.

However, Bitcoin’s gains were short-lived. Resistance near $85,000–$88,500 and mixed technical indicators soon dampened momentum. While Bitcoin’s RSI briefly hit 72—an overbought threshold—the MACD flattened, signaling stalled upward momentum. Ethereum’s MACD, by contrast, showed a bullish crossover, highlighting divergent paths for the two assets.

The Fed’s Hesitation and Global Policy Crosscurrents

The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates despite Trump’s demands remained a key drag on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Chair Powell maintained rates at 4.5%, citing inflation still above the 2% target (CPI at 2.4%). This “wait-and-see” approach contrasted sharply with the European Central Bank’s aggressive easing, which had slashed rates to 2.25%—its seventh cut since mid-2024.

Trump’s push for parity with the ECB faltered, however, as dollar strength—a byproduct of Fed hawkishness—kept Bitcoin under pressure. A rate cut, if realized, could still trigger a surge toward $92,000, but traders remained skeptical.

On-Chain Metrics Paint a Cautionary Picture

Despite Bitcoin’s price stability above $80,000, on-chain data revealed underlying hesitancy. Stablecoin supply growth (USDT, USDC) stalled, signaling reduced capital inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s realized cap hit $872 billion—an all-time high—yet monthly growth slowed to <1%, as long-term holders resisted selling.

The hash rate, a measure of mining activity, rose 5% to 340 EH/s, suggesting robust network participation. However, Ethereum’s gas prices fell 10% to 20 Gwei, hinting at lower transactional demand—a sign of the market’s broader “risk-off” mood.

Forecast: Between Hope and Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s near-term path hinges on two critical factors: the Fed’s next move and geopolitical developments. A breakout above $88,500 could catalyze a move toward $92,000, but a breakdown below $74,458 risks a slide to $71,000.

Longer-term risks loom larger. Prediction markets assign a 25% chance to Powell’s removal—a “black swan” scenario that could destabilize markets. Trump’s trade wars with China and the EU, meanwhile, risked reigniting stagflation, undermining Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal.

Conclusion: A Crypto Crossroads

Bitcoin’s April 2025 journey underscores its dual role as both a speculative asset and a macroeconomic barometer. While Trump’s Fed critiques briefly amplified hopes for lower rates, the cryptocurrency’s consolidation phase reflects deeper uncertainties: a divided Fed, global policy divergence, and the fragile interplay between inflation, trade wars, and investor sentiment.

With Bitcoin’s realized cap at an all-time high but growth stalling, and with traders split between bullish momentum and bearish caution, the market awaits clarity. A Fed pivot could ignite a rally, but until then, Bitcoin remains a vessel for both opportunity and anxiety—a digital mirror of the geopolitical and economic storms swirling around it.

This analysis synthesizes price data, technical indicators, and geopolitical context to illustrate Bitcoin’s precarious balancing act. Traders, take note: the next move hinges on whether central banks—or presidents—will tip the scales.