Crypto Daybook Americas: All Eyes on Jobs, Fed as Bitcoin Prepares for Breakout Rally

The crypto markets are on edge as Bitcoin (BTC) teeters at a critical crossroads, with its fate increasingly tied to U.S. macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy. With the April jobs report revealing both resilience and vulnerabilities, and the Fed holding rates steady in May, traders are watching for catalysts that could unlock a long-awaited rally toward $100,000—or worse, a retest of recent lows.

The Jobs Report: A Mixed Bag for Bitcoin Bulls

The April 2025 jobs report added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls, exceeding forecasts but masking underlying risks. While the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, revisions to prior months shaved 58,000 jobs from earlier reports. Sector splits were stark: healthcare and transportation thrived, while manufacturing and retail stumbled. Federal job cuts—driven by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—highlighted political and economic tensions.

The data’s impact on Bitcoin was nuanced. A strong headline print eased immediate recession fears, but wage growth at 3.8% and tariff-driven inflation risks kept the Fed on hold. Historically, Bitcoin has rallied after weak labor data—such as the March JOLTS report, which showed job openings dropping to 7.2 million—the lag effect often taking 105–130 days.

Fed Policy: The Pivot or the Pitfall?

The May Fed meeting delivered no rate cut but signaled openness to easing in June, with a 60% probability priced in by markets. Chair Powell emphasized “data dependency,” noting tariff-driven inflation risks but acknowledging a slowing economy. A June cut could weaken the dollar, a boon for Bitcoin, which often inversely correlates with USD strength.

Analysts point to 2023 and 2024 as templates: Bitcoin surged 45% in late 2023 after weak Q3 data, and a December 2024 rate cut preceded a 20% rally. If history repeats, Bitcoin could begin climbing by mid-July, with a potential $140,000 target by October 2025—a trajectory supported by Fidelity’s “Bitcoin Yardstick,” which flagged undervaluation in Q1 2025.

Technical and On-Chain Signals: Resistance and Reluctance

Bitcoin’s $95,000 level is now a battleground. A sustained breakout could catalyze a move toward $100,000, but a drop below $93,000 risks a slide to $84,000. Technical indicators like the 111-day moving average ($91,300) and short-term holder cost basis ($93,200) are key supports.

On-chain data shows cautious optimism: Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand turned positive in late April for the first time since February, though U.S. spot ETF inflows remain tepid. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw a $970 million inflow on April 28, a sign of institutional interest—if not yet conviction.

Risks on the Horizon

• Tariff Fallout: Trump’s 145% Chinese import levy could squeeze consumer spending, with Bank of America forecasting 65,000 fewer payrolls by mid-2025.
• Fed Divergence: If inflation persists above 2.5%, rate cuts may be delayed, pressuring Bitcoin.
• Altcoin Oversupply: Overbought altcoins could divert liquidity from BTC, as noted by analyst Alex Kruger.

Conclusion: The Rally’s Time Is Now—or Never

Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 hinges on three pillars: a June Fed rate cut, sustained labor market softening, and institutional inflows. With a 60% rate cut probability and historical lag effects suggesting a July turnaround, the stage is set. The $95,000 resistance is a make-or-break level: break it, and the next milestone—$100,000—becomes inevitable. Fail, and Bitcoin risks a prolonged slump.

The Fed’s hands are tied by inflation and tariffs, but traders have priced in a pivot. If the June FOMC delivers, Bitcoin could mirror its post-2024 cut performance, adding 20% in short order. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s valuation metrics and ETF flows suggest the rally is overdue. For now, all eyes are on the jobs reports and the Fed—because Bitcoin’s next act hinges on their every move.