Crypto Community Sees 89% Chance of US Stablecoin Regulation by 2026

The cryptocurrency community is closely watching the progress of US legislation aimed at regulating payment stablecoins, following a pivotal Senate vote and public encouragement from President Donald Trump to expedite its passage.

As of Thursday, the online betting platform Polymarket indicates an 89% likelihood that the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, will be approved by both the US Senate and House of Representatives and signed into law by the president before 2026. This betting market was launched approximately 18 hours after the bill secured a 68-30 vote in the Senate on Tuesday.

The future of the GENIUS Act in the House remains uncertain. While a majority of senators rejected a similar amendment before the final Senate vote, concerns linger about potential amendments addressing Trump's ties to the crypto industry, particularly World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1.

If enacted, the GENIUS Act could pave the way for US companies to issue their own stablecoins for transaction settlements. Tech giants like Apple and Google have reportedly explored the idea of their own tokens, and two US senators have inquired with Meta about similar plans.

Trump has indicated he would sign the GENIUS Act without amendments if the House passes it swiftly. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House and may soon vote on the CLARITY Act, which aims to define the roles of US financial regulators in overseeing digital assets.

Polymarket's odds do not necessarily predict the bill's passage or Trump's signature but reflect the confidence of some crypto users in the legislation's prospects. The platform's high probability assessment for the GENIUS Act suggests strong support within the cryptocurrency community for stablecoin regulation.

The GENIUS Act is a crucial piece of legislation for the cryptocurrency industry, as it seeks to establish clear guidelines for stablecoins. Stablecoins, which maintain a stable value often pegged to a reserve asset like the US dollar, have gained traction due to their stability and utility in various financial applications. However, their regulatory status has been unclear, raising concerns about their safety and legitimacy.

The passage of the GENIUS Act would provide much-needed clarity for stablecoin issuers and users, fostering innovation and growth in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. It would also address regulatory concerns and promote the adoption of stablecoins in mainstream financial services. The high probability assigned by Polymarket to the GENIUS Act's passage underscores the growing support for stablecoin regulation and the potential benefits it could bring to the industry.