Crypto's Next Bull Cycle: A Pathway to 5 Billion Users and $700K Bitcoin?

The cryptocurrency market is on the cusp of a transformative bull cycle, one that could redefine Bitcoin’s role in global finance and user adoption. With projections of Bitcoin reaching $700,000 and user numbers scaling to 5 billion by 2040, the interplay of market maturation, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds is creating a compelling case for long-term investors. This analysis examines the catalysts, timing, and structural shifts underpinning this potential paradigm shift.

Historical Context: Lessons from Past Bull Cycles

Bitcoin’s bull cycles have historically been driven by a combination of scarcity, macroeconomic conditions, and technological innovation. The 2017 surge from $1,000 to $20,000 was fueled by retail investor frenzy, ICOs, and regulatory scrutiny [2], while the 2020-2021 cycle saw institutional adoption (Tesla, MicroStrategy) and DeFi innovation propel prices to $64,000 [2]. The 2024 halving event, which reduced block rewards by 50%, further amplified scarcity-driven demand, with prices surging to $190,000 in Q3 2025 [1]. These cycles highlight a recurring pattern: Bitcoin’s price peaks align with reduced supply, macroeconomic instability, and institutional entry.

Current Catalysts: Halving, ETFs, and Regulatory Clarity

The 2024 halving, combined with the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, has unlocked institutional capital flows. By Q3 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs held $132.5 billion in assets under management, with projections of $43 trillion in retirement assets (e.g., 401(k) plans) gaining Bitcoin exposure [4]. Regulatory clarity under the Trump administration and frameworks like the EU’s MiCAR have further legitimized crypto as a mainstream asset class [5]. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts in late 2025 are expected to boost risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins making it an attractive hedge against inflation [2].

Market Maturation: From Speculation to Institutional Pillar

Bitcoin’s transition from speculative asset to institutional cornerstone is evident in its growing role in corporate treasuries and retirement portfolios. By 2025, 59% of institutional portfolios included Bitcoin or real-world assets (RWAs), driven by its scarcity and macroeconomic resilience [5]. Family offices and corporations like AirNet Technology Inc. now allocate up to 25% of portfolios to Bitcoin, leveraging its deflationary properties [5]. Technological advancements, such as the Lightning Network for microtransactions and Layer 2 solutions for scalability, are also enhancing Bitcoin’s utility, supporting broader adoption [1].

User Adoption: A Pathway to 5 Billion

Bitcoin’s user base is expanding through practical use cases. In developing economies, it is increasingly used for remittances (e.g., El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin) and as a store of value amid inflation [1]. By 2040, 36% of millennials and 51% of Gen Z are projected to receive part of their salaries in Bitcoin, accelerating mainstream adoption [1]. The Lightning Network’s low-cost, instant transactions are enabling everyday purchases, while corporate and institutional adoption is legitimizing its role in global finance [5].

Investment Timing: When to Enter the Bull Cycle

The current bull cycle, which began in late 2024, is characterized by sustained institutional inflows and macroeconomic tailwinds. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin dominance dips below 60% signal a shift to altcoins, but the 2025 rebound to 64% indicates Bitcoin remains the core asset [2]. Investors should consider entry points during consolidation phases, as seen in 2025, when corrections of 30–50% are more likely than the 70–80% declines of past cycles [3]. The next halving in 2028 could further amplify scarcity-driven demand, making 2026–2028 a critical window for long-term investors [4].

Risks and Challenges

Despite the bullish outlook, risks persist. Regulatory shifts (e.g., stricter SEC policies) and geopolitical tensions could disrupt market sentiment [4]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s volatility, though mitigated by institutional participation, remains a concern. Alternative technologies or regulatory crackdowns on DeFi could also challenge Bitcoin’s dominance [2].

Conclusion: A New Era for Crypto

The convergence of scarcity, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds positions Bitcoin as a cornerstone of global finance. While $700,000 and 5 billion users may seem ambitious, the structural shifts in adoption, regulation, and technology make this trajectory plausible. For investors, timing entry during consolidation phases and leveraging macroeconomic catalysts (e.g., rate cuts, halvings) offers a strategic pathway to capitalize on this next bull cycle.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin Will Reach $190K in This Quarter: Tiger Research [https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-will-reach-190k-in-this-quarter-tiger-research/][2] The History of Bitcoin Bull Runs and Crypto Market Cycles [https://www.kucoin.com/learn/crypto/the-history-of-bitcoin-bull-runs-and-crypto-market-cycles][3] Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/bitcoin-btc-price-cycle-might-be-breaking.html][4] Is Bitcoin's $1.5M Price Target in 2030 a Credible Investment Thesis? [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-1-5m-price-target-2030-credible-investment-thesis-2508/][5] Bitcoin's Growing Corporate Adoption: A New Era for ... [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-growing-corporate-adoption-era-institutional-exposure-2508/]