Crypto Bets Favor Liberal Party Win in Canada's Election

Crypto users are actively participating in the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada, with a notable preference for a Liberal Party victory as residents head to the polls.

As of April 28, the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket indicated a 79% chance of current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next Prime Minister. Users had invested significantly in bets surrounding the race, predicting either a Poilievre or Carney victory.

The odds suggested by the platform, along with many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates following the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in January. Trudeau and many in the Liberal Party faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would address then-proposed tariffs by US President Donald Trump.

Trump's rhetoric against Canada intensified after Trudeau's resignation, with repeated references to Canada as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” Additionally, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. These policies appear to have fueled anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents expressing their disapproval through actions such as booing the US national anthem at hockey games and drawing comparisons between the president and Poilievre.