Crypto Adoption Stalls at 8% as Cash-Driven Economies Remain Unserved

Crypto companies have long advocated for digital wallets and exchange apps as the key to global financial inclusion. However, the reality is stark: 1.4 billion people remain unbanked, and crypto adoption has only marginally exceeded 8%. Despite the industry's emphasis on decentralization and accessibility, it has largely overlooked the billions who rely on cash for their daily transactions.

In developing economies across Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, cash is not just prevalent but essential. Banking services are scarce, smartphone penetration is low, and digital literacy remains a significant barrier. Expecting these populations to adopt crypto through processes designed for tech-savvy users with internet access is impractical.

However, when offline crypto solutions have been tested, adoption rates have surged. This indicates that people are willing to use crypto but need access methods that align with their current financial realities. For instance, in Romania, 76% of transactions are cash-based, yet crypto adoption has reached 14%. In Morocco, despite digital payment growth, 16% of the population uses crypto, even though it is officially banned. In Egypt, 72% of payments rely on cash, but crypto adoption is around 3% due to limited digital infrastructure. Even in India, where crypto enthusiasm is high, 63% of transactions are still cash-based.

The barriers to crypto adoption extend beyond technology. Government regulations, economic conditions, and local financial habits all play crucial roles. The industry's biggest flaw is the assumption that digital wallets and banking apps are the only viable entry points, ignoring the billions who operate in cash-driven economies.

A more practical approach would be for crypto to adapt to these cash-heavy regions. Blockchain-linked physical banknotes, QR-coded vouchers, and SMS-based transfers could integrate crypto into the real economy in a way that makes sense for people who already use cash. Africa’s M-Pesa, with over 66.2 million active users, operates on a simple agent-based model that allows people to exchange cash for digital value without needing a bank account. This approach could work for crypto, enabling users to trade blockchain-linked cash notes at local vendors.

Machankura, for example, enables Bitcoin transactions via basic mobile networks, attracting over 13,600 users in Africa. In regions where nearly all digital payments rely on simple mobile codes rather than smartphone apps, such solutions are far more viable than pushing another exchange-based onboarding process. Security concerns with physical assets can be mitigated with trained agents and proper oversight, making this a solvable problem compared to excluding billions from the financial system.

Many in the crypto space dismiss paper-based solutions as outdated, but this ignores how financial systems evolve. People need time to transition and systems that fit their current way of life. CoinText, an SMS-based crypto transfer service, spread to 50 countries before shutting down, not because the idea didn’t work, but because the industry wasn’t ready to support it. Text BSV, a new service, enables seamless peer-to-peer payments of satoshis via SMS, requiring no app downloads, registrations, or prior knowledge of Bitcoin. It works on any phone, even non-smartphones.

If crypto adoption remains stalled at 8%, it won’t be because people don’t want it. It will be because the industry insisted on an approach that doesn’t work for most of the world. The financial upside of integrating crypto into cash economies is enormous. Similar markets could follow if Romania, with a 76% cash reliance, can reach 14% adoption. That translates into a $50-billion opportunity globally as crypto enters economies where trillions of dollars move in informal cash transactions every year.

A network of cash-to-crypto agents could generate $10 billion in revenue by 2030, mirroring the success of mobile money platforms like M-Pesa. Even crypto exchanges would benefit from tapping into these underserved markets, bridging the gap between digital and cash economies. Regulators may hesitate at paper-based crypto owing to transparency concerns, but financial inclusion at this scale is hard to ignore. If governments see a potential $50 billion in new economic activity, they’re more likely to work toward solutions rather than block progress.

Crypto was supposed to revolutionize financial access, but it remains out of reach for billions of people. Expecting these communities to abandon cash entirely and jump straight into digital wallets is unrealistic and a bad strategy. The solution isn’t to wait for these economies to modernize. It’s to meet people where they are. That means experimenting with cash-compatible solutions, partnering with telecom providers, and rolling out agent-based models that let people use crypto in a way that feels familiar. The current adoption stall will become permanent if the industry doesn’t make these changes. Instead of a step backward, paper-based crypto could be the bridge that finally connects billions of people to the future of finance.