Crypto's 4-Year Cycle: Is the Bull Run Over or Just Beginning?

The cryptocurrency market has long been defined by a recurring 4-year cycle, driven by Bitcoin's halving events and investor psychology. Historically, this cycle has followed a predictable pattern: accumulation, bull market (markup), distribution, and bear market (markdown). For instance, Bitcoin's 2013 rally from $13 to $1,000, its 2017 surge to $19,188, and its 2021 peak at $69,000 all aligned with this framework, with each bull phase emerging 12–18 months after a halving, according to an analysis by TheBucket (an analysis by TheBucket). However, as of October 2025, the market is at a crossroads. With Bitcoin hitting an all-time high of $126,500 and institutional adoption accelerating, the question looms: Is the current bull run nearing its peak-or is it just the beginning of a new era?

The Evolution of the 4-Year Cycle

Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reduces miner block rewards every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), has historically acted as a catalyst for scarcity-driven price surges. The most recent halving, on April 19, 2024, cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, according to the Crypto.com countdown (the Crypto.com countdown). Following this event, the market entered a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin trading in a range until late 2024. By October 2025, however, the asset has broken out to record highs, driven by a confluence of factors that challenge traditional cycle dynamics.

Critically, institutional adoption has emerged as a disruptive force. In 2024, the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs-led by BlackRock and Fidelity-sparked a flood of institutional capital. By early 2025, these ETFs had amassed $143 billion in assets under management (AUM), with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone surpassing $10 billion in value, according to a Prime Buchholz report (a Prime Buchholz report). This influx of capital, coupled with corporate treasuries (e.g., the Wisconsin Investment Board's $163 million allocation to Bitcoin ETFs), has stabilized Bitcoin's price and reduced its volatility to levels comparable to the S&P 500 and gold, a Cointelegraph article notes (a Cointelegraph article).

Institutional Adoption: A New Market Dynamic

The 2023–2026 cycle has diverged from historical patterns in two key ways. First, institutional participation has compressed the traditional accumulation phase. Whereas past cycles relied on retail investors and speculative trading to drive early-stage price action, the 2023–2024 phase saw institutional "whales" dominate buying activity. By mid-2025, over 124 corporations held Bitcoin as a treasury asset, with institutional holdings valued at $668 billion, according to a Lendefi Markets analysis (a Lendefi Markets analysis). This shift has created a more resilient market, less susceptible to the extreme volatility that characterized earlier bull and bear phases.

Second, regulatory clarity has accelerated institutional adoption. The Trump administration's January 2025 executive order, which elevated digital assets to a national priority, provided a framework for institutional entry. This policy, combined with the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative, has positioned Bitcoin as a legitimate store of value and hedge against macroeconomic risks, as reported in a piece in The Block (a piece in The Block). As a result, Bitcoin's role in institutional portfolios has expanded beyond speculative exposure to a strategic allocation, akin to gold or real estate.

Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead?

The question of whether Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is obsolete remains contentious. On one hand, historical data suggests that the 2024 halving should have triggered a bull market peaking in early 2025. Yet, Bitcoin's October 2025 surge to $126,500-and projections of $140,000 by year-end-suggest the cycle may be extending. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and K33's research team argue in a CoinCentral analysis that institutional adoption has fundamentally altered the market, replacing short-term retail-driven cycles with long-term capital flows (a CoinCentral analysis).

However, skeptics caution that the current rally may still conform to historical patterns. The 2021 bull market, for example, peaked in November 2021 (14 months post-2020 halving), while the 2024 halving occurred in April 2024. If the current cycle follows a similar timeline, a peak could emerge in late 2025 or early 2026. Yet, the presence of institutional "flooring" capital-where large investors lock in Bitcoin for years-suggests the market may no longer be governed by the same psychological and speculative forces, according to a BitFinance post (a BitFinance post).

The Road Ahead

Bitcoin's October 2025 surge, fueled by $5 billion in weekly ETF inflows and a total AUM of $164.91 billion, underscores the asset's growing legitimacy, according to a BreakingCrypto article (a BreakingCrypto article). Meanwhile, altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have benefited from the broader institutional embrace, with the total crypto market cap surpassing $4.3 trillion. This ecosystem-wide growth has spurred innovation in DeFi, NFTs, and Web3 infrastructure, further entrenching crypto's role in global finance.

Looking forward, the market's trajectory will hinge on two factors: the sustainability of institutional inflows and regulatory developments. If the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and similar initiatives gain traction, Bitcoin could transition from a speculative asset to a systemic one, akin to gold or treasuries. Conversely, regulatory headwinds-such as unresolved environmental concerns or geopolitical tensions-could trigger a correction.

Conclusion

The 4-year cycle, once a cornerstone of crypto market analysis, is evolving. While historical patterns still provide a useful framework, institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are reshaping Bitcoin's trajectory. The current bull run, driven by institutional capital and macroeconomic tailwinds, appears far from over. However, investors must remain vigilant: the transition to a more mature market does not eliminate risk. As Bitcoin inches toward $140,000, the question is no longer whether the cycle is dead-but whether the new era it heralds can sustain its momentum.