Crumbl Cookies' Social Media Alchemy: Scaling the Experience Economy

In an era where consumer brands must deliver both utility and emotional resonance, Crumbl Cookies has emerged as a master of the experience economy. By blending limited-time collaborations, viral social media strategies, and a franchise-first model, the brand has transformed itself into a cultural phenomenon. Yet, as its growth slows, investors must weigh its scalable strengths against looming challenges.

The Alchemy of Experience-Driven Growth
Crumbl's rise is a textbook example of how to monetize the “experience economy.” Its strategy hinges on three pillars: celebrity collaborations, social media virality, and scalable franchising. Take its 2024 Kardashian-Jenner family cookie collection, which tied flavors to individual personalities—Kendall's cookie dough cupcake, Kylie's pink confetti cookie—while capitalizing on the family's 500+ million social media followers. This campaign, paired with weekly flavor reveals on TikTok (where Crumbl now has 9.6 million followers), created FOMO-driven traffic and UGC (user-generated content) worth millions in free promotion.

The Data Behind the Viral Machine
Crumbl's success is quantifiable:
- Store Count: Grew from 862 in 2023 to over 950 by early 2025, though expansion slowed to 87 net new locations in 2024 versus 363 in 2021.
- Revenue: Average unit volume (AUV) rose 17% in 2024 to $1.35 million, but remains below its 2022 peak of $1.8 million.
- Profitability: Median franchisee net profit fell to $77,359 in 2024, but the top 43% of locations averaged $251,706—a sign of uneven execution.

The Experience Economy Playbook
Crumbl's genius lies in its ability to turn every cookie into an event. By leveraging limited-time offers (LTOs)—like the Willy Wonka Red Velvet Sandwich Cookie tied to a movie release—or weekly flavor drops, it keeps customers coming back. Its TikTok strategy, which includes ASMR-style unboxing videos and influencer teasers, has turned baking into a spectacle. The brand's Instagram campaigns, such as the Beetlejuice Cake sweepstakes, further blur the lines between food and entertainment.

This approach isn't just about sales; it's about building a community. Crumbl's 1.4 million Twitter followers and 4 million Instagram followers are not passive observers—they're co-creators, voting on flavors and sharing their Crumbl moments. This “participatory marketing” lowers acquisition costs while boosting loyalty.

Challenges Ahead
Yet cracks are emerging. The slowdown in franchise growth—from 363 net new stores in 2021 to just 87 in 2024—hints at saturation in key markets like California and Texas. Same-store sales have dipped 24.7% since 2022, raising questions about the sustainability of LTO-driven demand.

Meanwhile, the brand's $2 billion valuation target—10x its $150 million EBITDA—faces skepticism. While Crumbl's 2024 EBITDA margin hit 11%, its reliance on franchising (which dilutes control) and uneven unit performance suggest risks. Competitors like Great American Cookies, though smaller, could exploit Crumbl's growing brand fatigue.

Investment Considerations
For investors, Crumbl presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario:
1. Franchise Participation: For those willing to accept operational risks, franchising remains lucrative. Top-performing units generate over $250k annually, but franchise fees ($50k upfront) and initial investments ($228k–$567k) require careful due diligence.
2. Experience Economy Plays: Crumbl's success mirrors broader trends in experiential consumption. Investors might consider exposure to the sector via ETFs like the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), which tracks companies benefiting from discretionary spending.
3. Private Equity Activity: The brand's potential sale to a PE firm (e.g., TSG Consumer Partners' 2024 stake) could unlock value, but the $2B valuation may overstate long-term scalability.

Conclusion
Crumbl Cookies has rewritten the rules of the cookie game by turning every bite into an experience. Its social media alchemy and franchise scalability have fueled rapid growth, but the road ahead is fraught with saturation, profit variability, and valuation uncertainty. Investors should treat Crumbl as a bellwether for the experience economy—its success hinges on whether it can innovate beyond the “next big flavor” and build a legacy of enduring loyalty. For now, the cookie jar remains open—but the next bite may be bittersweet.