Cruising Through Volatility: Royal Caribbean, UPS, and Sherwin-Williams in 2025

The year 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for three major companies: Royal Caribbean (RCL), UPS (UPS), and Sherwin-Williams (SHW). Each faces distinct challenges and opportunities, from post-pandemic travel rebound to cost-cutting in logistics and the ever-shifting DIY market. Let’s dive into their outlooks and what investors should watch.

Royal Caribbean: Betting Big on Family Vacations

Royal Caribbean’s Star of the Seas, set to debut this summer, is a game-changer. The ship, positioned as “Orlando’s best family vacation,” will operate weeklong itineraries from Port Canaveral, Florida, with stops at the Caribbean’s Perfect Day at CocoCay—a private island voted “Best Private Island” for five years straight.

The company is also leveraging its Wonder of the Seas, the world’s largest cruise ship, for short Miami-based getaways. These itineraries emphasize thrill-driven activities like the Ultimate Abyss slide and Wonder Dunes mini-golf. With pricing promotions like “60% off second guests” and “kids sail free,” Royal Caribbean is targeting cost-conscious families.

Why it matters: Cruise demand remains strong, with 2025 bookings for Alaska and Europe already 70% sold out. The Star of the Seas could drive a 10-15% revenue boost in peak summer months. However, rising fuel costs and potential labor disputes (like the 2022 crew strikes) could temper gains.

UPS: Cutting Costs to Navigate Amazon’s Exit

UPS’s decision to slash 20,000 U.S. jobs and close 73 facilities by mid-2025 is drastic but strategic. The move aims to offset a 50%+ drop in Amazon volume by late 2026. With automation now handling 64% of U.S. volume, UPS is betting on efficiency over scale.

The restructuring could save $3.5 billion annually, but the short-term pain is steep. Q1 2025 revenue dipped 0.7% to $21.5 billion, and the stock price has lagged peers.

Why it matters: While cuts may hurt short-term sentiment, the long-term goal is clear: shift focus to profitable segments like international air cargo and returns logistics. If margins hit the 10.8% target for 2025, UPS could rebound. But investors must watch for further Amazon-related volatility and labor disruptions.

Sherwin-Williams: Navigating DIY Headwinds

Sherwin-Williams’ Q1 2025 results were a mixed bag. While its Paint Stores Group grew 2.3% on price hikes, the Consumer Brands Group (CBG) slumped 6% due to weak DIY demand. Currency headwinds also dented top-line growth.

Despite this, CEO Heidi Petz remains bullish. The company reaffirmed its low-single-digit full-year sales growth guidance, relying on U.S.-based revenue stability and localized sourcing to mitigate tariffs.

Why it matters: The Paint Stores Group’s resilience is a positive sign, especially as homeowners prioritize renovations. However, the CBG’s struggles highlight risks in a slowing housing market. Investors should monitor Q2 updates, as Sherwin’s 45-year dividend growth streak depends on cost discipline.

Conclusion: Which Stock to Bet On?

• Royal Caribbean (RCL): A buy if travel demand holds. The Star of the Seas and family-friendly pricing could push 2025 revenue 8-10% higher than 2024.
• UPS (UPS): A hold for now. While cost cuts are necessary, the stock won’t shine until Amazon’s impact stabilizes and margins improve.
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW): A hold. The Paint Stores Group’s strength offsets DIY weakness, but the stock’s valuation (25x earnings) leaves little room for error.

The winner here is likely Royal Caribbean. With cruise liners capturing 70% of pre-pandemic demand and 2025 itineraries 60% booked, the company is positioned to capitalize on pent-up demand. For investors, RCL’s 3.2% dividend yield and growth tailwinds make it a compelling pick—if you can stomach volatility.

As for UPS, the restructuring is a high-risk gamble. Only time will tell if $3.5 billion in annual savings can outweigh the pain of layoffs and facility closures. And Sherwin? Stick to its core strengths—paints and coatings—and avoid overpaying for its DIY exposure.

The market’s 2025 story is clear: growth beats cost-cutting—unless the cuts are deep enough to matter. For now, Royal Caribbean is sailing toward the finish line.