CrowdStrike Plummets 3.45% as Short-Term Bearish Signals Intensify – What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) trades at $452.6, down 3.45% from its $468.76 previous close
• Intraday range spans $449.46 to $474.0, with RSI at 20.9 (oversold territory)
• Options chain shows heavy call buying in 450–470 strike range, signaling bearish sentiment

Today’s sharp decline in CrowdStrike reflects a confluence of bearish technicals and aggressive options activity. The stock’s 3.45% drop has pushed it closer to its 52-week low of $298, while the cybersecurity sector leader Microsoft (MSFT) also fell 2.35%. Traders are now scrutinizing key support levels and options positioning to gauge the selloff’s sustainability.

Bearish Momentum Gains as Technicals and Options Activity Signal Short-Term Weakness
The selloff is driven by a short-term bearish trend confirmed by the RSI (20.9) entering oversold territory and the MACD (-11.0) with a negative histogram (-1.55). Price action shows a breakdown below the 30D ($498.21) and 200D ($461.26) moving averages, while the Bollinger Bands (lower: $454.72) indicate extreme volatility. Options data reinforces this: 12 of 20 contracts in the 450–470 strike range show high leverage ratios (46.91%–65.70%) and elevated turnover (121,155–146,632), suggesting aggressive bearish positioning. The 52W high of $566.9 is now 24.7% above current levels, amplifying near-term pressure.

Cybersecurity Sector Suffers as Microsoft Drags Down Momentum
The cybersecurity sector is under pressure, with Microsoft (MSFT) falling 2.35%—a drag on sector sentiment. While CRWD’s 3.45% drop outpaces MSFT’s decline, both stocks reflect broader market caution. The sector’s leveraged ETFs (if available) would typically mirror this weakness, but no relevant ETF data is provided. Sector-wide, defensive positioning is evident as investors rotate into cash or lower-volatility assets.

Bearish Options and ETFs Emerge as High-Leverage Bets Amid Volatility Surge
• 200-day average: $461.26 (below current price); RSI: 20.9 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: $454.72 (lower) vs. $493.48 (middle); MACD: -11.0 (bearish)

Key levels to monitor include the 200D MA ($461.26) and Bollinger lower band ($454.72). A break below $449.46 (intraday low) could trigger further selling. The options chain highlights two high-leverage bearish plays:

• CRWD20260109C450 (Call): Strike $450, Expiry 2026-01-09, IV 30.02%, Leverage 46.91%, Delta 0.57, Theta -1.79, Gamma 0.0195, Turnover 121,155
- IV at 30.02% (moderate), Leverage 46.91% (high), and Gamma 0.0195 (price-sensitive)
- A 5% downside to $429.97 would result in a $0 payoff, but high leverage amplifies gains if the selloff accelerates.

• CRWD20260109C455 (Call): Strike $455, Expiry 2026-01-09, IV 29.10%, Leverage 65.70%, Delta 0.47, Theta -1.56, Gamma 0.0204, Turnover 146,632
- IV at 29.10% (moderate), Leverage 65.70% (very high), and Gamma 0.0204 (high sensitivity)
- A 5% drop would yield $0, but the 65.70% leverage makes this a high-risk, high-reward bet for aggressive bears.

Aggressive bulls may consider CRWD20260109C450 into a bounce above $454.72 (Bollinger lower band).

Backtest CrowdStrike Holdings Stock Performance
After a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to now, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) has shown a generally positive performance. The backtest data reveals that CRWD has a high win rate across various time frames, indicating a higher probability of positive returns following the intraday plunge. Here's a detailed analysis based on the backtest results:1. Frequency and Win Rates: The event occurred 467 times over the 30-day backtest period. CRWD had a 3-day win rate of 59.10%, a 10-day win rate of 60.60%, and a 30-day win rate of 64.24%. This suggests that CRWD tends to bounce back from intraday plunges, with the majority of days experiencing positive returns within the short to medium term.2. Returns: The average 3-day return following the event was 0.95%, with a maximum return of 9.81% on day 59. The 10-day return was slightly higher at 1.98%, with a maximum return of 11.32% on day 78. The 30-day return was 4.93%, with a maximum return of 15.23% on day 107. These returns indicate that while the immediate post-event rebounds may be modest, CRWD can experience significant gains over the longer term.3. Max Return: The maximum return during the backtest period was 15.23%, which occurred after 107 days. This highlights that while CRWD often exhibits positive returns following a -3% intraday plunge, the magnitude of these returns can vary significantly, with some periods showing more robust rebounds than others.In conclusion, CRWD has historically demonstrated strong resilience and positive momentum following a -3% intraday plunge. Investors may consider this behavior when assessing the potential impact of such events on their investment strategy. However, it's important to note that past performance is not always indicative of future results, and investors should conduct thorough due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

Short-Term Bearish Bias Intact – Key Levels to Watch for Reversal or Breakdown
The selloff shows no immediate signs of abating, with technicals and options data aligning on bearish momentum. A break below $454.72 (Bollinger lower band) or $449.46 (intraday low) could extend the decline toward the 52W low of $298. Sector leader Microsoft’s 2.35% drop underscores broader risk-off sentiment. Traders should monitor the 450–455 strike range for options activity and watch for a potential rebound above $474.0 (intraday high) to signal a reversal. Action Insight: Watch for $454.72 breakdown or regulatory reaction.