CRON Soars 12.16% on Trump Marijuana Reclassification Rumors: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Cronos Group (CRON) surges 12.16% to $3.1966, hitting its 52-week high of $3.21
• Cannabis sector ETFs like MJ and TOKE rally 38.67% and 17.94%, signaling sector-wide optimism
• Options volume spikes with 25,090 contracts traded on the $3 strike call expiring Dec 19
• Trump’s potential Schedule III reclassification sparks regulatory euphoria, driving CRON’s 14% intraday gain amid a broader cannabis rally. The stock’s 13.36M turnover and 6.74% turnover rate highlight intense retail and institutional participation.

Trump’s Marijuana Reclassification Sparks Cannabis Market Frenzy
Cronos Group’s 12.16% intraday surge is directly tied to reports that President Donald Trump is considering reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. This shift would align cannabis with substances like ketamine, easing regulatory burdens and unlocking tax benefits for industry players. The news triggered a sector-wide rally, with CRON joining peers like Tilray (+28%) and Canopy Growth (+20%) in a premarket frenzy. The stock’s price action reflects speculative positioning around potential policy changes, with investors betting on reduced legal barriers and expanded market access for cannabis companies.

Pharma Sector Flat as Cannabis ETFs Soar
While the Pharmaceuticals sector remains stagnant—led by Pfizer (PFE) with a 0.15% intraday gain—cannabis-focused ETFs like the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) and Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) surged 38.67% and 17.94%, respectively. This divergence underscores the market’s prioritization of regulatory-driven cannabis opportunities over traditional pharma. CRON’s 12.16% move outperforms even the most aggressive cannabis ETFs, indicating concentrated retail and institutional bets on Trump’s potential policy shift.

Capitalizing on CRON’s Volatility: ETFs and Options Playbook
• 200-day average: $2.20 (well below current price)
• RSI: 88.73 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 0.0581 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.0132)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $3.1966 exceeds upper band of $2.7634, signaling extreme volatility
• Key levels: 200D MA at $2.20 (critical support), 52W high at $3.21 (resistance).

For leveraged exposure, the Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) and Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) offer 38.67% and 17.94% gains, reflecting sector-wide optimism. However, CRON’s options chain presents higher-conviction plays. The CRON20251219C3 call option (strike $3, expiring Dec 19) stands out with a 400% price change ratio, 98.99% IV, and 10.67% leverage ratio. Its 0.6983 delta and 0.7432 gamma suggest strong sensitivity to price moves, while 25,090 turnover ensures liquidity. A 5% upside to $3.36 would yield a payoff of $0.36 per contract. The CRON20260116C3.5 call (strike $3.5, expiring Jan 16) offers 70% price change, 69.63% IV, and 18.82% leverage. With 27,761 turnover and 0.5479 gamma, it balances time decay (theta -0.004962) and volatility. A 5% move to $3.36 would result in a $0.16 payoff. Aggressive bulls should consider CRON20251219C3 into a break above $3.21, while CRON20260116C3.5 offers a longer-term leveraged play.

Backtest Cronos Group Stock Performance
The 12% intraday surge in CRON from 2022 to now has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-Day and 10-Day win rates are above 40%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the 30-Day win rate is slightly lower at 45.56%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.02%, which occurred on day 58 after the surge, suggesting that while CRON has a good chance of moving higher in the immediate aftermath of the surge, the overall performance over longer periods is more modest.

CRON at Inflection Point: Ride the Trump-Driven Wave or Hedge for Volatility?
Cronos Group’s 12.16% rally hinges on the sustainability of Trump’s marijuana reclassification narrative. With RSI at 88.73 and price near its 52W high, the stock is in overbought territory but remains supported by regulatory optimism. Investors should monitor the $3.21 level for a breakout confirmation and watch for a breakdown below the 200D MA at $2.20, which could trigger a retest of the 52W low. The sector’s outperformance—led by Pfizer’s 0.15% gain—highlights cannabis’s decoupling from traditional pharma. For immediate action, consider CRON20251219C3 for short-term upside or CRON20260116C3.5 for a longer play. Watch for $3.21 breakout or regulatory clarity by Dec 19.