Cronos Group (CRON) Surges 14.6% on Trump-Driven Cannabis Rally: Is This the Start of a Green Wave?

Summary
• Cronos Group (CRON) rockets 14.6% intraday, hitting $3.015 amid Trump’s CBD endorsement and marijuana reclassification rumors.
• Sector-wide cannabis stocks surge as Reuters and IBD highlight regulatory optimism.
• Options frenzy: CRON20251017C3 call option surges 214% in turnover, signaling bullish bets.

Cronos Group’s explosive 14.6% rally on September 29, 2025, has thrust the cannabis producer into the spotlight. The stock’s surge to $3.015—its 52-week high—coincides with a broader sector upswing fueled by President Trump’s recent endorsement of CBD for seniors and whispers of marijuana reclassification. With turnover hitting 16.6 million shares and options activity spiking, investors are scrambling to position for a potential regulatory breakthrough.

Trump's CBD Endorsement Ignites Cannabis Sector Optimism
Cronos Group’s 14.6% intraday surge is directly tied to President Trump’s recent social media post advocating for hemp-derived CBD in senior healthcare and his ongoing discussions about reclassifying marijuana. This regulatory optimism has triggered a sector-wide rally, with Reuters and Investor’s Business Daily reporting cannabis stocks surging on the back of these developments. The stock’s move aligns with broader market chatter about potential easing of federal restrictions, which could unlock billions in new demand. Additionally, Cronos’ recent expansion into Germany with its PEACE NATURALS brand and Q2 revenue beating estimates ($33.46M vs. $32.36M) have bolstered investor confidence.

Cannabis Sector Soars as Tilray Brands (TLRY) Leads with 53.5% Surge
The cannabis sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Tilray Brands (TLRY) surging 53.5% and Canopy Growth (CGC) up 19.2%. Cronos Group’s 14.6% gain, while robust, trails sector leaders but remains significant given its recent Q2 earnings and international expansion. The sector’s momentum is driven by shared regulatory tailwinds, including Trump’s CBD advocacy and potential marijuana reclassification. Investors are rotating into cannabis ETFs like MSOS and MJ, which have seen inflows amid the sector’s resurgence.

Options Playbook: Leveraging CRON's Volatility with Strategic Contracts
• RSI: 61.9 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.0626 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $3.015 (above upper band of $2.70)
• 200D MA: $2.05 (well above current price)

Cronos Group’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average by 47% and within a short-term bullish trend. Key support levels at $2.53 and resistance at $3.16 (52-week high) will be critical for near-term direction. With implied volatility spiking to 98.6% for October contracts, options traders are capitalizing on the stock’s volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• CRON20251017C3 (Call, $3 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
- IV: 98.6% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 10.77%
- Delta: 0.557 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0101 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.582 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 26,964 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.1655 (max(0, 3.1655 - 3))
This contract offers aggressive leverage for a short-term rally, with high gamma amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $3.16.

• CRON20260116C3 (Call, $3 strike, Jan 16 2026 expiry):
- IV: 68.1% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 6.41%
- Delta: 0.593 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0025 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.344 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 174,970 (highly liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.1655
This longer-dated option balances time decay with liquidity, ideal for a mid-term bullish outlook. Its high turnover ensures easy entry/exit.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should prioritize CRON20251017C3 for a short-term breakout above $3.16, while CRON20260116C3 offers a safer, longer-term play. Watch for a breakdown below $2.89 (intraday low) to trigger a reversal.

Backtest Cronos Group Stock Performance
It looks like the back-test engine couldn’t produce statistics because virtually no valid 15 %+ intraday-surge events (using close-to-close change as a proxy) had enough trading days after the event to calculate post-event performance – the only qualifying surge was on 2025-09-29, which is too close to “today” to generate a return series, so the calculation ran into a divide-by-zero error.Two ways to move forward:1. Keep the 15 % threshold but exclude the most recent few sessions (e.g., require ≥ 5 trading days of data after each event). 2. Relax the threshold (for example 10 % close-to-close or use a 15 % intraday high-to-open move) to capture more historical events.Which approach would you prefer, or would you like to try a different criterion altogether?

Act Now: Cronos Group's Green Wave Gains Momentum—Position for the Next Leg
Cronos Group’s 14.6% surge is a clear signal of regulatory optimism and sector-wide momentum. With Trump’s CBD advocacy and potential marijuana reclassification driving sentiment, the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the rally. Tilray Brands’ 53.5% surge underscores the sector’s strength, but Cronos’ recent international expansion and Q2 revenue beat position it as a key player. Investors should monitor the $3.16 52-week high and $2.89 support level. For a bold move, CRON20251017C3 offers high leverage, while CRON20260116C3 provides a safer, longer-term bet. The next 48 hours will be critical—watch for regulatory news or a breakdown below $2.89 to pivot strategy.