Critical Metals Soars 6.35% on Greenland Construction Greenlight and Geopolitical Hype

Summary
• Critical Metals (CRML) surges 6.35% to $12.56, hitting an intraday high of $13.73
• Greenland construction approval and U.S. Greenland acquisition speculation drive frenzy
• Turnkey contract for Arctic-grade facility and joint venture with Romania boost momentum

Today’s explosive move in Critical Metals reflects a perfect storm of strategic infrastructure progress and geopolitical speculation. The company’s approval of a $13.73-intraday high Greenland facility, coupled with rumors of a U.S. Greenland acquisition under a potential Trump administration, has ignited investor frenzy. With a 6.35% surge, CRML’s stock has outpaced broader rare earths peers, signaling a pivotal shift in market sentiment.

Greenland Construction Greenlight and Geopolitical Speculation Drive CRML Surge
Critical Metals’ 6.35% rally stems from two catalysts: the formal approval of its Greenland Tanbreez project’s Arctic-grade facility and renewed speculation about a U.S. acquisition of Greenland. The turnkey contract with 60° North Greenland, covering design, permitting, and construction, marks a critical step toward operationalizing the Tanbreez rare earths project. Simultaneously, reports of Donald Trump’s administration pursuing Greenland for national security purposes have amplified CRML’s strategic value. The stock’s intraday high of $13.73 reflects a confluence of infrastructure progress and geopolitical tailwinds.

Critical Metals Outpaces Rare Earths Peers Amid Strategic Infrastructure Push
While rare earths sector peers like MP Materials (MP) edged up 1.48%, CRML’s 6.35% surge underscores its unique positioning. The company’s Greenland project, with its Arctic-grade infrastructure and proximity to deep-water fjords, differentiates it from competitors. Additionally, CRML’s joint venture with Romania’s state-owned uranium processing firm and its Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria create a diversified critical minerals portfolio, outpacing peers focused on single commodities.

Options Playbook: CRML20260116C12.5 and CRML20260116C12.5 as High-Leverage Bets
• RSI: 71.875 (overbought)
• MACD: -0.0275 (bullish divergence)
• 200D MA: $5.89 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $10.95 (upper) vs. $12.56 (current price)

CRML’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. The RSI’s overbought level and MACD divergence indicate strong short-term buying pressure. With the 200-day MA at $5.89 and Bollinger Bands showing a 16% gap, the stock is primed for a breakout. Aggressive bulls should target the $13.73 intraday high as a near-term resistance level.

Top Options:
• CRML20260116C12.5
- Strike: $12.50
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 199.88% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 7.54% (high gearing)
- Delta: 0.568965 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.104225 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.094869 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 278,983 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.688/share (leveraged gain)
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term breakout.

• CRML20260116C12
- Strike: $12.00
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 206.12% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 6.45% (strong gearing)
- Delta: 0.617264 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.105691 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.089332 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 38,397 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.78/share (leveraged gain)
- Why: Balances leverage and liquidity for a conservative bullish play.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider CRML20260116C12.5 into a breakout above $13.73. Conservative traders should target CRML20260116C12 as a lower-risk entry.

Backtest Critical Metals Stock Performance
The backtest of CRML's performance after a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.66%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.51%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.34%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 19.96% over 51 days, suggesting that CRML can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

CRML's Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Position for Next-Phase Infrastructure Execution
Critical Metals’ 6.35% surge is underpinned by tangible infrastructure progress and geopolitical tailwinds. With the Greenland facility on track for May 2026 completion and U.S. Greenland acquisition speculation intensifying, the stock’s momentum appears sustainable. Investors should monitor the $13.73 intraday high as a critical resistance level and watch for follow-through volume. Meanwhile, sector leader MP Materials (MP) gained 1.48%, underscoring the rare earths sector’s resilience. Act now: Buy CRML20260116C12.5 for a high-leverage play on the $13.73 breakout.