Critical Metals Plunges 11.42% Amid NINGI's Bearish Report and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Summary
• Critical Metals (CRML) drops 11.42% to $9.15, marking its worst single-day decline since October 2025.
• NINGI Research’s bearish report on Tanbreez project claims sparks investor skepticism.
• Romania joint venture (JV) with FPCU aims to disrupt China’s rare earth dominance but faces short-term headwinds.
• Options market sees heavy activity in at-the-money puts and calls as volatility surges to 138.5%.
Today’s sharp selloff in CRML reflects a collision of bullish long-term catalysts and immediate bearish pressures. While the company’s strategic partnership with Romania positions it to challenge China’s rare earth monopoly, a critical research report from NINGI has ignited doubts about the feasibility of its Tanbreez project. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $1.23 and a dynamic P/E of -20.85, traders are now weighing the balance between speculative optimism and regulatory risk.

NINGI's Bearish Report Sparks Investor Doubt
The 11.42% intraday plunge in CRML is directly tied to a bearish research note from NINGI Research, which questioned the credibility of Critical Metals’ Tanbreez Rare Earth Project. The report accused the company of overstating the project’s potential, citing 'promotional or misleading' claims about its resource quality and processing capabilities. This skepticism has triggered a flight to safety, with short-sellers amplifying the move through aggressive put options activity. The stock’s collapse from $10.01 to $9.01 underscores the fragility of investor confidence in speculative rare earth plays, particularly as the market digests the potential for regulatory scrutiny or operational delays.

Rare Earth Sector Under Pressure as MP Materials Slides 2.9%
The rare earth sector is broadly underperforming, with MP Materials (MP) down 2.92% as investors reassess the sector’s risk profile. While CRML’s decline is more severe, the broader trend reflects growing caution ahead of the Fed’s final 2025 rate decision and uncertainty around global demand for critical minerals. The iShares Lithium Miners and Producers ETF (ILIT) has gained 0.096%, suggesting some capital is rotating into lithium, but CRML’s unique exposure to rare earths and geopolitical supply chains keeps it isolated from the sector’s modest resilience.

Options and ETFs for Navigating CRML’s Volatility: A Strategic Playbook
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $5.33 (well below current price), RSI: 65.26 (neutral), MACD: -0.396 (bearish crossover), Bollinger Bands: $6.41–$10.69 (price near lower band).
• ETFs: ILIT (15.65, +0.096%) and VTWV (163.58, +0.872%) offer sector exposure but lack direct CRML linkage.
Top Options Contracts:
• CRML20251219P9 (Put, $9 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 138.5% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: -0.424 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0217 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1867 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $3,420 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.455 per share (max profit if CRML drops to $8.73).
- Why it stands out: High gamma and IV make this put ideal for a short-term bearish bet, with liquidity to enter/exit.
• CRML20251219C9 (Call, $9 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 136.8% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.576 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0588 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1891 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $4,727 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0 (out of the money).
- Why it stands out: High gamma and liquidity make this call suitable for a volatility play, though downside risk is significant.
Trading Setup: Aggressive short-term traders should prioritize the CRML20251219P9 put for a bearish bet, while bulls might consider the CRML20260102C9 call for a longer-term play. Key support levels at $8.55 (30D MA) and $6.41 (Bollinger lower band) will dictate near-term direction. The options market’s elevated IV suggests continued volatility, but a breakdown below $8.55 could trigger a wave of stop-loss selling.

Backtest Critical Metals Stock Performance
The iShares Core MSCI All World ex USA ETF (CRML) has demonstrated resilience following a -11% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present. Backtesting reveals a 3-day win rate of 47.08%, a 10-day win rate of 53.75%, and a 30-day win rate of 57.92%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The average 3-day return is 1.39%, the 10-day return is 4.69%, and the 30-day return is 14.18%, suggesting that CRML tends to recover and even exceed its initial levels after a significant downturn.

CRML at Crossroads: Volatility, Catalysts, and the Path Forward
Critical Metals faces a pivotal juncture as regulatory skepticism collides with its ambitious rare earth supply chain strategy. While the Romania JV offers long-term upside, the NINGI report has exposed vulnerabilities in its narrative, creating a volatile trading environment. Traders should monitor the $8.55 support level and the $10.01 intraday high as critical decision points. With MP Materials (MP) down 2.9%, the sector’s broader risk-off sentiment adds urgency to CRML’s near-term technicals. For now, the CRML20251219P9 put offers a high-gamma, high-IV play on a potential breakdown, but investors must balance this with the company’s strategic momentum. Watch for a catalyst-driven rebound or a regulatory-driven collapse—either way, CRML’s volatility is far from over.