Critical Metals (CRML) Surges 31.8% on Groundbreaking Rare Earth Assay Results – What’s Next?

Summary
• Critical Metals (CRML) surges 31.8% intraday, hitting $18.44
• Drilling results reveal 0.48% TREO+Y grades and strategic metals like gallium and hafnium
• Turnover jumps 73.14% as market reacts to resource expansion potential
• RSI hits 73.52, signaling overbought conditions amid bullish momentum

Today’s explosive move in Critical Metals (CRML) has sent shares soaring over 31% following the release of 2025 drilling results from Greenland’s Tanbreez project. The stock’s intraday high of $18.44—nearly 33% above its previous close—reflects investor enthusiasm for the company’s rare earth and strategic metal discoveries. With a 73.14% turnover rate and a 52-week high of $32.15 still in reach, CRML’s technicals and fundamentals align for a high-velocity trade. This article dissects the catalysts, sector dynamics, and options strategies to capitalize on the surge.

Rare Earth Grades and Strategic Metals Drive CRML’s Volatility
Critical Metals’ 31.8% intraday rally stems from the release of 2025 drilling results at its Tanbreez Rare Earths Project in Greenland. The assay data revealed consistent Total Rare Earth Oxide (TREO+Y) grades of 0.40–0.47%, with heavy rare earth oxides (HREO) comprising 25–27% of the total. Strategic metals like gallium (100 ppm), hafnium (300 ppm), and cerium (1,500 ppm) further bolster the project’s multi-commodity potential. CEO Tony Sage emphasized the continuity of mineralization across the Fjord and Upper Fjord areas, extending known deposits and validating the project’s scalability. These results directly correlate with CRML’s price surge, as investors priced in near-term resource upgrades and mine planning progress.

Industrial Metals Sector Rally as CRML Outpaces Peers
The Other Industrial Metals & Mining sector, led by MP Materials (MP), saw a 6.48% intraday gain, but CRML’s 31.8% move far outperformed peers. While MP’s rally reflects broader rare earth demand, CRML’s surge is uniquely tied to its Greenland project’s high-grade, multi-metal potential. The sector’s 52-week high of $32.15 for CRML contrasts with MP’s $68.34 price, highlighting CRML’s speculative edge. However, CRML’s -40.49 P/E ratio and -25.68% ROA underscore its unprofitable status, making its move more event-driven than fundamentals-based.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on CRML’s Volatility
• MACD: 1.345 (above signal line 0.57), RSI: 73.52 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $15.37 (upper), $9.55 (middle), $3.74 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $6.21 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $9.42

CRML’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD divergence hinting at momentum. Key resistance lies at the 52-week high of $32.15, while support is near the 200-day MA at $6.21. The stock’s 73.14% turnover rate and 31.8% intraday gain indicate strong liquidity and speculative fervor. For leveraged exposure, consider bold options with high gamma and theta to exploit near-term volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• CRML20260123C17 (Call, $17 strike, Jan 23 expiry):
- IV: 205.02% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 6.55%
- Delta: 0.613 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1488 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0638 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 70,845 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.78 (max(0, 18.71 - 17))
- Why: High gamma and liquidity make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario, with theta decay favoring quick moves.

• CRML20260123P16.5 (Put, $16.5 strike, Jan 23 expiry):
- IV: 215.16% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.05%
- Delta: -0.354 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.0831 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0591 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 5,861 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.86 (max(0, 16.5 - 18.71))
- Why: Balances bearish protection with high gamma, suitable for hedging or short-term volatility.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy bold CRML20260123C17 into a breakout above $17.50. Conservative traders may short bold CRML20260123P16.5 if the stock consolidates near $17.50.

Backtest Critical Metals Stock Performance
The backtest of CRML's performance after a 32% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. Here's a detailed analysis:1. Event Frequency and Win Rates: - The event occurred 203 times, with a 3-day win rate of 44.33%, a 10-day win rate of 48.77%, and a 30-day win rate of 54.68%. - This suggests that following the 32% intraday increase, CRML had a higher probability of positive returns in the short to medium term.2. Returns: - The 3-day return was 2.07%, the 10-day return was 3.91%, and the 30-day return was 11.40%. - The maximum return during the backtest was 20.35%, which occurred on day 51 after the event.3. Conclusion: Backtesting indicates that CRML performed well after the 32% intraday increase, with a significant portion of days experiencing positive returns. This suggests that investors may have found opportunities in the stock following the initial surge, although the returns varied in magnitude and consistency over different time frames.

CRML’s Volatility Presents High-Reward Opportunities – Act Fast
Critical Metals’ 31.8% surge is driven by compelling rare earth and strategic metal grades, positioning it as a high-velocity trade. While the stock’s -40.49 P/E and -25.68% ROA highlight its speculative nature, the technicals and options data suggest near-term momentum. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $32.15 and the 200-day MA at $6.21. For context, sector leader bold MP Materials (MP) rose 6.48% today, but CRML’s move is more event-specific. Act now: Buy bold CRML20260123C17 for a 5% upside or short bold CRML20260123P16.5 for volatility hedging. Watch for a breakout above $17.50 or a breakdown below $16.50 to confirm direction.