Critical Metals (CRML) Surges 39.6% Intraday: What’s Fueling This Volcanic Move?

Summary
• Critical Metals (CRML) rockets 39.6% to $18.88, shattering its 52-week low of $1.23 and hitting a new 2026 high.
• Turnover surges to 49.97 million shares, with 94.24% of float traded, signaling intense short-term interest.
• Sector peers like Alcoa (AA) lag with a 0.79% rise, highlighting CRML’s outsized momentum.

Today’s explosive move in Critical Metals has sent shockwaves through the industrial metals sector. With a 39.6% intraday gain, CRML’s price has surged from its 52-week low of $1.23 to $18.88, driven by a confluence of speculative fervor and sector-specific catalysts. The stock’s volatility and liquidity metrics suggest a short-term parabolic trend, but what lies beneath this meteoric rise?

Sector-Specific Catalysts Ignite CRML’s Parabolic Move
Critical Metals’ 39.6% surge is directly tied to recent sector news highlighting U.S. government-backed innovations in critical mineral recovery. The U.S. Geological Survey’s release of the most detailed geologic map of the contiguous U.S. and Metallium Ltd.’s $100,000 DOD-funded gallium recovery trial have intensified focus on domestic critical mineral supply chains. Additionally, Graphite One’s $570 million EXIM loan for its Alaska graphite project and NioCorp’s elevated niobium/dysprosium/terbium criticality status have created a narrative of scarcity and strategic urgency. These developments, combined with CRML’s role in rare earth and industrial metals, have triggered speculative buying ahead of potential policy-driven demand surges.

Industrial Metals Sector Gains Momentum as CRML Leads Rally
The Industrial Metals & Alloys sector has seen renewed interest, with CRML’s 39.6% gain dwarfing Alcoa’s (AA) 0.79% rise. Broader sector momentum is fueled by U.S. government initiatives, including the $570 million EXIM loan for Graphite One and the U.S. Geological Survey’s geologic map. While AA reflects traditional aluminum demand, CRML’s rally is driven by speculative bets on critical mineral scarcity and defense-linked projects like Metallium’s gallium recovery. This divergence highlights CRML’s positioning in high-urgency, policy-driven subsectors.

Options Playbook: Leveraging CRML’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Contracts
• MACD: 1.35 (above signal line 0.57), RSI: 73.52 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $15.37 (upper), $9.55 (middle), $3.74 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $6.21 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $9.42 (below), 100-day MA: $9.76 (below)

CRML’s technicals scream short-term overbought conditions, with RSI at 73.52 and MACD diverging sharply. The stock is trading above all major moving averages, suggesting a continuation of its parabolic trend. Key resistance lies at the 52-week high of $32.15, but immediate support is the $15.37 Bollinger upper band. Aggressive bulls should target the $19.05 intraday high as a near-term ceiling before considering profit-taking.

Top Options Contracts:
• CRML20260123C17 (Call):
- Strike: $17, Expiry: 2026-01-23, IV: 78.11%, Delta: 0.73, Theta: -0.0877, Gamma: 0.1393, Turnover: 83,890
- IV (Implied Volatility): High, indicating strong market expectations
- Delta (Price Sensitivity): High, aligning with CRML’s sharp move
- Gamma (Delta Sensitivity): Strong, amplifying gains on further price rises
- Turnover: High, ensuring liquidity
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.04 per contract (ST = $19.82)
- Why it stands out: This call offers a 73% delta for a moderate IV, ideal for riding CRML’s momentum with strong gamma to amplify gains.

• CRML20260123C17.5 (Call):
- Strike: $17.5, Expiry: 2026-01-23, IV: 173.71%, Delta: 0.6155, Theta: -0.1370, Gamma: 0.0728, Turnover: 163,763
- IV: Extremely high, reflecting intense speculative demand
- Delta: Moderate, balancing risk and reward
- Theta: High time decay, suitable for short-term plays
- Turnover: Exceptional, ensuring easy entry/exit
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $2.32 per contract (ST = $19.82)
- Why it stands out: This contract’s 173.71% IV and 163,763 turnover make it a high-liquidity, high-IV play for CRML’s near-term volatility.

Trading Opinion: Aggressive bulls should target CRML20260123C17.5 for a 5% upside scenario, leveraging its high IV and gamma. If CRML breaks $19.05, consider rolling into the $19.50 strike for extended exposure.

Backtest Critical Metals Stock Performance
The backtest of CRML's performance after a 40% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.78%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.25%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.22%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 21.22% over 51 days, suggesting that CRML can deliver significant gains even after such a substantial intraday surge.

CRML’s Volatility Demands Immediate Action: Ride the Wave or Secure Profits
Critical Metals’ 39.6% intraday surge is a textbook case of speculative fervor driven by sector-specific catalysts. While the stock’s technicals suggest overbought conditions, the confluence of U.S. government-backed mineral projects and elevated critical mineral urgency creates a bullish narrative. Investors should monitor CRML’s ability to hold above $15.37 (Bollinger upper band) and watch for a potential test of the $32.15 52-week high. For now, the sector leader Alcoa (AA) at +0.79% underscores CRML’s outperformance, but the key takeaway is to secure gains on a pullback to $13.27 (intraday low) or re-enter longs on a break above $19.05. Act now: Ride the CRML20260123C17.5 call for a high-IV, high-gamma play on this parabolic move.