Critical HBAR Support and Resistance Levels for February 1, 2026

As the calendar flips to February 2026, the Hedera (HBAR) token finds itself at a pivotal juncture. After a volatile December 2025 marked by institutional selling and a sharp decline to $0.1308, the asset is now consolidating near critical support and resistance levels. For investors and traders, understanding these levels-and their interplay with converging technical indicators and ETF flows-is essential for strategic entry and exit timing.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

HBAR's immediate support structure is anchored at $0.1306–$0.1307, a level that has repeatedly contained the price during its consolidation phase. Below this, the $0.12 threshold-a 52-week low-acts as a critical psychological and technical barrier. A successful rebound from this level could trigger a medium-term rally toward $0.18, while a breakdown would expose further downside to $0.10.

On the resistance side, $0.1350–$0.1315 represents a key battleground. A reclaim of this zone would signal bullish continuation, validating the asset's ability to overcome prior distribution levels. Broader resistance at $0.13 remains a focal point, with a break above this level potentially propelling HBAR toward $0.15–$0.16.

Converging Technical Indicators

Technical indicators paint a mixed but evolving picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently neutral at 47, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains bearish but shows diminishing downward momentum, hinting that selling pressure may be exhausting.

The Bollinger Bands further reinforce this narrative, with HBAR trading near the lower band ($0.11) and the upper band ($0.13) acting as a dynamic resistance level. A breakout above this band could trigger a 31% move to $0.176, assuming the price clears the $0.135 neckline of a forming W-pattern on the daily chart according to technical analysis.

On-chain data adds nuance. The Money Flow Index (MFI), currently below 50, confirms a bearish bias, with capital outflows and long liquidation risks looming if the $0.114 support is breached as reported. However, the asset's proximity to its 20-day and 50-day moving averages-though still below the 200-day-suggests a short-term bullish bias amid a broader bearish trend.

ETF Flows and Market Sentiment

HBAR's ETF landscape has been a double-edged sword. The Canary HBAR ETF, launched in late October 2025, initially attracted $30 million in inflows but later saw inconsistent activity, with net flows dropping to $875,000 by early February 2026. However, a surge in inflows to $3.31 million in late January 2026 coincided with spot outflows, signaling growing institutional-style buying.

This ETF activity aligns with a broader narrative of demand building ahead of a potential breakout. For instance, the $0.102 support level has been tested multiple times, with buyers stepping in to stabilize the price. Analysts note that sustained ETF inflows-such as the $1.46 million recorded in the week ending January 16-could provide the catalyst needed to push HBAR above the 50-day EMA and into a bullish phase.

Strategic Entry and Exit Timing

For investors, the $0.12–$0.1306 range represents a high-probability entry zone. A confirmed rebound from $0.12, supported by a bullish MACD crossover and ETF inflows, could justify a long position with a target at $0.15–$0.16. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.114 would warrant a defensive exit to mitigate exposure to a potential $0.10–$0.102 slide.

On the upside, a sustained close above $0.135-particularly if it coincides with ETF inflows and a W-pattern breakout-would validate the bullish case, offering a 31% upside to $0.176. Traders should also monitor the $0.13 resistance level, as a sustained rally above this could trigger a retest of the $0.15–$0.16 zone.

Catalysts and Risks

Beyond technicals, two macro-level factors could influence HBAR's trajectory. First, the January 21, 2026 mainnet upgrade-aimed at enhancing AI integration and enterprise adoption-could attract institutional interest according to market analysis. Second, the McLaren Racing partnership and AI Studio's role as a trust layer for AI workflows position HBAR for long-term utility-driven growth.

However, risks remain. A broader market downturn or a breakdown below $0.11 could accelerate selling, particularly with $2.71 million in long liquidations at risk if the $0.112 level is breached as data shows.

Conclusion

HBAR's February 2026 outlook hinges on its ability to reclaim key resistance levels and sustain ETF-driven demand. For strategic investors, the $0.12–$0.1306 range offers a compelling risk-reward setup, while a breakout above $0.135 could unlock significant upside. As always, vigilance to macroeconomic conditions and on-chain liquidity will be critical in navigating this volatile asset class.