Credicorp Surges 5.58% on Institutional Buying and Earnings Beat – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Credicorp (BAP) rockets 5.58% to $277.86, hitting a 52-week high of $280.88
• Institutional investors including New York State Common Retirement Fund and Arrowstreet Capital boost stakes by 7.9% and 67.9%
• Earnings beat estimates by $0.12, with analysts upgrading price targets to $310–$318

Credicorp’s explosive intraday rally has captured market attention as the Peruvian banking giant surges 5.58% to $277.86, nearing its 52-week high. The move follows a blockbuster earnings report, aggressive institutional accumulation, and a wave of analyst upgrades. With the stock trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the question now is whether this momentum can sustain or if it’s a short-term spike.

Institutional Accumulation and Earnings Outperformance Drive BAP's Rally
Credicorp’s 5.58% surge is fueled by a confluence of factors. Institutional investors have aggressively increased stakes in the second quarter, with New York State Common Retirement Fund adding 7.9% and Arrowstreet Capital boosting its position by 67.9%. This institutional buying reflects confidence in Credicorp’s earnings resilience, evidenced by its Q3 results: $6.17 EPS (beating estimates by $0.12) and a 23.59% net margin. Analysts have responded with upgraded price targets, including JPMorgan’s $310 and UBS’s $318, while Zacks raised its rating to 'Strong Buy'. The stock’s technicals also align with the bullish narrative, as it breaks above the 50-day SMA ($257.81) and approaches its 52-week high.

Banks Outperform as Financials Sector Struggles
While the broader Financials sector declined 0.05%, the Banks subsector edged up 0.04%, with Credicorp’s rally outpacing peers. This divergence highlights Credicorp’s unique catalysts—institutional inflows and earnings strength—rather than a sector-wide trend. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the sector leader, rose 1.33%, but its performance pales compared to Credicorp’s explosive move.

Bullish Setup with Strategic Options Plays
• 50-day SMA: $257.81 (below current price)
• 200-day SMA: $243.04 (below current price)
• RSI: 50.63 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.14 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $264.67, Middle at $255.68

Credicorp’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. The stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, with RSI hovering near neutral territory, indicating no immediate overbought conditions. The MACD histogram’s positive divergence and the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high further reinforce the case for a short-term breakout. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• BAP20260220C300 (Call, $300 strike, 2026-02-20 expiration):
- Implied Volatility: 24.89% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 55.02% (high)
- Delta: 0.27 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.065 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.010 (moderate price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 18,180 (high liquidity)
This call option offers high leverage and moderate delta, ideal for capitalizing on a potential $280.88 52-week high breakout. A 5% upside to $291.75 would yield a payoff of $91.75 per share, translating to a 167% return on the $300 strike.

• BAP20260220P260 (Put, $260 strike, 2026-02-20 expiration):
- Implied Volatility: 25.09% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 50.52% (high)
- Delta: -0.26 (moderate downside protection)
- Theta: -0.063 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.010 (moderate price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 18,550 (high liquidity)
This put option provides downside insurance while maintaining upside potential. If the stock consolidates near $270, the put’s delta could shift to -0.35, enhancing its hedge value. A 5% downside to $264 would yield a $36 payoff, a 138% return on the $260 strike.

Aggressive bulls should target the $280.88 52-week high, with a stop-loss below $264.67 (lower Bollinger Band). Conservative investors may consider the $260 put as a low-cost hedge.

Backtest Credicorp Stock Performance
It looks like my automated attempt to fetch BAP’s daily percentage-change data ran into an unexpected data-source error (“Dict not defined”). To move forward with your intraday-surge back-test (days when BAP gained ≥ 6% in a single session from 2022-01-01 to today), we have two options:1. Retry data retrieval (I’ll adjust the query parameters and source to work around the issue). 2. If you already have – or can quickly list – the trade dates when BAP rose at least 6 %, you could provide them and I’ll run the event study immediately.Which approach would you prefer?

Credicorp’s Bull Run Gains Steam – Act Now Before Volatility Fades
Credicorp’s 5.58% surge is underpinned by institutional buying, earnings outperformance, and analyst upgrades. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of this momentum, with the $280.88 52-week high as the next key target. However, traders must remain vigilant: a breakdown below $255.68 (middle Bollinger Band) could trigger a retest of the $243.04 200-day SMA. For context, JPMorgan (JPM) rose 1.33% today, reinforcing the sector’s resilience. Investors should prioritize the BAP20260220C300 call for aggressive upside potential or the BAP20260220P260 put for downside protection. Watch for a $280.88 breakout or a $264.67 breakdown to dictate next steps.