Creative Planning's CEO Bets Big on First International Acquisition—Is This the Scalable Play He’s Proven?

The question for Creative Planning isn't whether it's growing-it's how much of that growth is backed by real skin in the game. The firm's aggressive expansion, averaging four U.S. deals a year since 2000, is a capital-intensive bet on scale. But the real signal comes from the man making those bets. CEO Peter Mallouk is the majority owner, meaning his personal wealth is directly aligned with the firm's trajectory. When a founder's net worth rises or falls with the company's performance, that's a powerful incentive to get the strategy right.

This alignment is clear in the execution. The firm has completed 31 U.S. and 1 Swiss acquisitions over the past quarter-century, a consistent pattern of integration. The latest move, however, marks a significant escalation. Its January 2026 acquisition of Baseline Wealth Management, a Geneva-based firm with about $1 billion in assets, is its first international foray. That $1 billion+ purchase is a major strategic bet, moving beyond domestic consolidation into a new market.

So, is this genuine insider confidence or a top-down push? The evidence points to the former. The CEO's majority stake ensures his interests are deeply woven into the growth plan. The steady, multi-year acquisition cadence shows a deliberate, capital-backed strategy, not a sudden, risky pivot. The Baseline deal, while large, fits the pattern of buying established wealth managers to scale assets under management. The smart money here is the CEO's own capital, betting that Creative Planning's model works and that its next move-across borders-is the logical extension of a proven playbook.

Merit Medical: Is the Sell-Off a Dip or a Warning from Insiders?

The stock is down 16% in under a month, a sharp move that creates a classic dip-buying scenario. But for the smart money, a price drop is just noise without context. The real signal is whether the company's own insiders are buying or selling into the weakness, and whether the operational strength behind the numbers is holding.

On the surface, the fundamentals look solid. Q4 2025 results beat expectations, with total revenue of $393.9 million, up 11% year-over-year, and a record $74 million in quarterly free cash flow. The company is deploying that cash, recently acquiring the C2 CryoBalloon device and launching a multi-year "Continued Growth Initiatives" Program. This shows a management team confident enough to bet on future growth even as the stock price falls.

Yet, the sell-off suggests something deeper is at play. The stock's decline from $82.98 to $69.71 in a month is a significant event. Historical data shows Merit has had nine similar sharp dips since 2010, with a median peak return of 39% within a year. That history supports a rebound thesis. But history doesn't tell you if this dip is different.

The key question is alignment. When a company's leadership is betting its own money, it's a powerful vote of confidence. The evidence here shows strong operational execution, but it doesn't reveal insider trading activity. Without seeing whether executives are buying shares at these lower prices, the picture is incomplete. The stock's fall could be a temporary overreaction, or it could be a warning that the market sees risks-like tariffs or a weaker OEM quarter-that the Q4 beat didn't fully address.

The bottom line is that Merit's financials are intact, and its growth initiatives are active. But in a market where smart money watches every filing, a 16% drop without visible insider accumulation is a red flag. It suggests that while the company is executing, some of the most informed investors may be taking profits or hedging their bets. For now, the dip is real, but the signal from the insiders remains unclear.

Smart Money Signals: What to Watch

The setup is clear. For Creative Planning, the smart money is betting on scale, and the Baseline deal is the next big wager. For Merit, the smart money is watching from the sidelines as the stock sells off, waiting to see if the dip is a buying opportunity or a warning. The catalysts and risks that will determine the outcome are now in focus.

For Creative Planning, the key watchpoint is execution. The firm has a proven track record of integrating U.S. wealth managers, but this is its first international move. The January 2026 acquisition of Baseline Wealth Management, a Geneva-based firm with about $1 billion in assets, is a major test. The smart money will be looking for signs that the integration of its 14 new employees is seamless and that Baseline's assets are being absorbed without disruption. Success here validates the CEO's bold bet and signals that the international playbook works. The next signal will be the pace and quality of future deals. The firm has averaged four U.S. acquisitions a year for decades. The critical question is whether new purchases continue to meet or exceed the $1 billion+ AUM threshold set by Baseline. Consistent deals of that size would prove the growth model is scalable beyond borders. A slowdown or a string of smaller acquisitions would be a red flag that the easy pickings are gone.

For Merit Medical, the critical watchpoint is price action. The stock has fallen sharply, down 16% in less than a month. The smart money needs to see if this decline is a temporary overreaction or the start of a deeper correction. The immediate technical level to monitor is the $69 support. A break below that level would signal that the recent strength is fading and could trigger further selling, despite the company's solid fundamentals. The historical data is on Merit's side, with a median peak return of 39% following similar dips. But history is no guarantee. The real signal will come from institutional wallets. Smart money often moves before the crowd, and 13F filings will show whether large funds are accumulating shares at these lower prices or distributing them. A visible pattern of institutional accumulation would be a bullish signal that the dip is being viewed as a buying opportunity. Conversely, sustained distribution would confirm that the smart money sees risks-like the tariff headwinds and weaker OEM quarter noted in the Q4 report-that the stock price is already pricing in.

The bottom line is that both stories hinge on insider actions and financial execution. For Creative Planning, watch the Baseline integration and the size of future deals. For Merit, watch the $69 support level and the flow of institutional money. The smart money is patient, but it's always watching for the first sign that the story is changing.