CPKC Shares Plunge 3.41% to $77.52 Marking Sixth Straight Loss

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) experienced significant downward pressure in the most recent trading session, declining 3.41% to close at $77.52. This marks the sixth consecutive daily decline, resulting in a cumulative 5.93% loss over the period. The session featured an extended trading range between $76.92 (daily low) and $80.67 (daily high), with elevated trading volume of 5.37 million shares suggesting intensified selling conviction.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a sustained bearish momentum, characterized by six successive bearish candles with diminishing upper shadows – indicative of persistent selling pressure. The July 18 candle closed near its session low ($76.92) after failing to sustain above $80.67, establishing immediate resistance at $80.67-80.85. Historical price action identifies robust support at $76.38-76.92 (June 27 and July 18 lows) and secondary support at $74.39 (November 26, 2024 low). A decisive close below $76.38 would signal continuation of the downtrend, while recovery above $80.85 would challenge the psychological $82 barrier.
Moving Average Theory
The current price ($77.52) trades below all key moving averages – a bearish configuration signaling deteriorating medium-to-long-term sentiment. The 50-day MA (approximately $80.50) capped recent rallies on July 15-17, while the 100-day MA (~$79.30) and 200-day MA (~$78.80) exhibit downward slopes. This alignment suggests sustained distribution. A death cross materialized in late June when the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA, historically a bearish confirmation. Recovery above $80.50 (50-day MA) is needed to invalidate the current downtrend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) resides in negative territory with a widening histogram, confirming accelerating bearish momentum. Both the MACD line and signal line demonstrate no bullish divergence despite oversold conditions. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (particularly %K and %D) has entered oversold territory (<20), reflecting exhaustion in the near term. However, the absence of bullish crossovers in KDJ combined with MACD’s bearish trajectory implies downward momentum may persist before a potential reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20,2) expanded notably during the July 18 sell-off, signaling volatility surge. Price breached the lower band ($78.20 approximate), which historically preceded short-term rebounds (e.g., June 27 bounce from $76.38). The bandwidth expansion amidst high-volume decline typically culminates in consolidation. Failure to reclaim the lower band would imply further downside targeting $75.40. Current position below the lower band coincides with oversold KDJ, increasing rebound probability but requiring confirmation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent distribution occurred on escalating volume, culminating in the highest single-day volume (5.37M shares) since May 14. This confirms institutional participation in the downtrend. Notably, July 10’s rally to $83.65 featured lower volume (2.59M) than subsequent down days, indicating weak buying conviction. For any recovery attempt to gain credibility, it must materialize on volume exceeding the 10-day average (~2.8M shares), ideally matching July 18’s capitulatory volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has plunged to approximately 28, deep in oversold territory (<30). While this suggests selling exhaustion, similar occurrences in late April 2025 preceded a 10% rebound. However, RSI can remain oversold during strong downtrends – as evidenced in March 2025 when it lingered below 30 for seven sessions amid a 15% decline. Bearish divergence is absent; RSI confirms new price lows. Traders should monitor for bullish divergence on any rebound attempt to validate strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the primary uptrend from the April 8 low ($67.15) to the July 10 high ($83.65) reveals critical thresholds. The 38.2% retracement at $77.35 aligned with the July 18 low ($76.92), offering initial support. Sustained breach targets the 50% level ($75.40) and the 61.8% level ($73.45), the latter coinciding with the April 2025 consolidation zone. The 23.6% retracement ($80.30) now converges with the 50-day MA ($80.50), creating a formidable resistance cluster.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists at $77.35-76.92, where Fibonacci support, Bollinger Band violation, oversold RSI, and KDJ extremes align – suggesting heightened rebound probability if defended. However, MACD’s unwavering bearish momentum and volume-confirmed distribution temper optimism. The absence of bullish divergences across oscillators reinforces caution. Should $76.92 fail, the next confluence emerges at $75.40 (50% Fibonacci and psychological level) and $73.45 (61.8% Fibonacci and April low). Recovery above $80.30-80.85 (Fibonacci 23.6% + candlestick resistance) is required to signal trend reversal potential.
In summary, Canadian Pacific Kansas City exhibits oversold characteristics within an intact downtrend. While technical extremes imply near-term rebound potential, bearish momentum and volume patterns advise against premature bottom-fishing. Traders should monitor the $76.92-77.35 support confluence for reversal confirmation, with decisive breach opening extension to $75.40. Upside progression requires reconquering $80.30-80.85 resistance validated by expanding volume.