Coya Therapeutics' Cash Runway Reality Check: Burn Rate vs. Analyst Optimism

The latest financial disclosures for Coya Therapeutics reveal a stark contradiction between its cash position and burn trajectory. Management reports a reported cash reserve of $28.1 million following a $23 million public offering in Q3 2025, according to a StockTitan report, yet simultaneously states the offering brought cash "to approximately $51 million" in a Panabee report. This $22.9 million discrepancy demands scrutiny, especially when viewed alongside the sharply accelerated cash burn.

Annualized burn more than doubled from $13 million (nine months ending Q3 2024) to nearly $28 million, as reported in the Panabee report, a surge starkly evident in Q3 alone. R&D expenses climbed 31% YoY to $2.9 million, pushing the nine-month cash burn to $9.7 million-a 24% increase, as noted in the Panabee report. This acceleration comes despite the recent capital infusion, raising immediate questions about runway sustainability.

The tension is further amplified by earlier data: Coya held only $30 million in cash as of June 2025, according to a SimplyWall.St report, with a burn rate that had already surged 132% YoY to $16 million annually. The current $28 million projected burn now represents a staggering 28% of the company's $101 million market cap, as noted in the SimplyWall.St report, making dilution risk increasingly acute. While management asserts funding through H2 2027, the widening gap between reported cash and escalating burn creates significant downside uncertainty for holders.

The is a key element of the investment thesis for Coya Therapeutics. The recent equity raise has had a clear impact on the stock price trajectory and could potentially influence investor sentiment ahead of the Q1 2026 data readout.

While Coya Therapeutics secured a significant clinical validation with FDA acceptance of its ALS drug IND and advanced trial enrollment, the company simultaneously accelerated its cash burn at a concerning pace. The $3.3 million license revenue recognized upon FDA IND acceptance for COYA 302 in ALS provided a temporary financial jolt, but this was dwarfed by the underlying cash consumption. Management now projects an annual burn approaching $28 million-more than double the $13 million annualized rate over the prior nine months-directly funding the critical Phase 2 ALSTARS ALS trial, currently enrolling patients with NEALS affiliation. This spending surge is starkly evident, with R&D expenses jumping 31% year-over-year to $2.9 million in Q3 2025 alone, pushing overall cash burn 24% higher to $9.7 million for the trailing nine months. The burn acceleration, a 132% year-over-year surge from the $16 million annualized rate reported just months prior, now strains the runway extended by the recent $23 million public offering, which brought cash to $51 million as of Q3 2025. This puts significant pressure on sustaining operations through the second half of 2027, especially as the company prepares an FTD IND submission targeted for Q4 2025 and awaits top-line data from another FTD trial, balancing imminent clinical milestones against escalating liquidity demands. Despite the $51 million cash position and a 22-month runway projection based on the $28 million annual burn, the dramatic increase in spending raises legitimate questions about the sustainability of this trajectory before the pivotal ALS trial readout.

The analyst chorus remains overwhelmingly optimistic for Coya Therapeutics. All four tracked Wall Street analysts maintain a "Buy" rating, with an average 12-month price target of $16.50-roughly 154% above the current $6.49 share price, according to data updated through August 2025, as reported in the Panabee report. The most aggressive target comes from D. Boral Capital, which set a $18.00 price point-nearly 179% upside-on July 24, 2025, as noted in the Panabee report. This confidence appears to hinge largely on upcoming clinical catalysts, particularly the Phase 2 ALS trial readout.

That rosy outlook, however, sits atop a rapidly accelerating cash burn. Management now projects an annual burn rate of nearly $28 million to fund operations through late 2027, more than doubling the $13 million annualized burn reported for the nine months ending Q3 2025, as noted in the Panabee report. The surge is evident in Q3 itself, where cash burn jumped 24% to $9.7 million over the trailing nine months, with R&D expenses climbing 31% year-over-year to $2.9 million, as noted in the Panabee report. Even figures representing the cash position vary-some sources cite $30 million as of June 2025, while post-offering reports list $51 million as of Q3 2025-but the burn rate's trajectory is unmistakable. That $28 million annual burn translates to a staggering 16% erosion of the company's $101 million market capitalization each year, a ratio that investors should weigh heavily against the bullish price targets.

Proponents argue that analysts are reasonably focused on potential milestones, not cash flow. The Phase 2 ALS data, if positive, could dramatically de-risk the company and justify the current valuation multiple. However, this narrative glosses over the immediate financial pressure. Even with the $23 million infusion boosting cash to $51 million, the burn acceleration-widely noted as raising "scrutiny over the sustainability of this spending ramp ahead of the critical Phase 2 ALS trial readout"-creates significant dilution risk. A 132% surge in burn year-over-year, as highlighted in mid-2025, underscores a growing disconnect between market enthusiasm for future potential and the cash realities funding the present clinical push.

Following the significant equity raise and clinical progress, Coya Therapeutics now operates at a critical inflection point, balancing accelerated development against the imperative of capital preservation. The company's elevated risk profile-80 disclosed concerns versus the S&P 500 average of 32-means liquidity management is paramount, with scrutiny focused intensely on burn acceleration and clinical execution, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Cash positioning presents a complex picture. Earlier reports cited $28.1 million in cash reserves post-offering, while subsequent disclosures indicate approximately $51 million as of Q3 2025 after the same capital raise, as noted in the StockTitan report and the Panabee report. This discrepancy reflects either revised reporting or timing differences, but both figures suggest runway extending into late 2027 under current projections. Management now forecasts an annual burn rate of nearly $28 million, a sharp increase from the $13 million annualized rate over the prior nine months, as noted in the Panabee report. This surge-evidenced by a 31% YoY jump in Q3 R&D expenses to $2.9 million-heightens vulnerability to clinical setbacks or fundraising delays.

Three distinct scenarios define the near-term trajectory:

1. Bull Case: Cash remains above $30 million by January 2026, with burn stabilized near $20 million annually. The ALS Phase 2 readout delivers compelling efficacy signals, validating the R&D investment path and supporting continued operations without immediate capital raises, as noted in the Panabee report.
2. Base Case: Cash settles between $25 million and $30 million by January 2026, aligning with the $28 million annual burn forecast. The FTD trial data expected in Q1 2026 materializes as neutral or moderately positive, sufficient to maintain investor confidence but likely necessitating further financing later in 2026 to complete trials, as reported in a Bizwire report.
3. Bear Case: Cash falls below $25 million by January 2026, signaling the burn acceleration is unsustainable. Either the Phase 2 ALS data disappoints or the FTD data (Q1 2026) shows minimal clinical benefit. This scenario triggers urgent dilution risk and threatens program continuity, as the elevated risk profile (particularly in Tech & Innovation and Finance) offers little buffer against such a liquidity shortfall, as noted in the TipRanks report.

The January 2026 earnings report serves as the primary liquidity checkpoint, confirming both cash holdings and the actualized burn rate, as noted in the StockTitan report. Any indication that cash dipped below $30 million or burn exceeded $20 million annually would trigger heightened concern under the "Risk Priority" stance. The falsifier remains clear: cash reserves dropping beneath $25 million before the Q1 2026 FTD data readout would represent a severe downside trigger, likely forcing drastic cost-cutting or emergency fundraising amid the already elevated 80-risk environment. Investors must closely monitor whether the clinical momentum justifies the burn surge or if the cash position is rapidly eroding without commensurate validation.