CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview (COWUSDC)

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.2309 before stabilizing with a modest rebound.
• Volatility picked up in the early hours, with a sharp selloff followed by consolidation.
• Volume spiked near the bottom of the move, suggesting accumulation or short-covering.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a contraction, suggesting a period of low volatility may precede a breakout.

The CoW Protocol/USDC pair (COWUSDC) opened at $0.2449 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.2610, fell to a low of $0.2309, and closed at $0.2477 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. The 24-hour total volume was 316,726.3 units, with a notional turnover of $77,498.60.

Over the past 24 hours, the market exhibited a bearish bias with a notable selloff starting at 19:15 ET and bottoming at $0.2309. The price then consolidated in a narrow range between $0.2309 and $0.2431 for much of the session. A key recovery began around 04:15 ET, with price testing previous resistance levels and finding support at $0.2430–0.2445. The candlestick formation during the rebound included several bullish hammers and a morning star pattern near $0.2430, suggesting potential reversal.

Moving averages show that the 20-period and 50-period lines were below the 50-period line for the majority of the session, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. However, by the end of the period, the price approached the 20-period moving average from below, which could signal a short-term bounce. The daily chart shows the price trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped into oversold territory for several hours and has since moved upward, now hovering near neutral levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turned positive near the end of the session, suggesting a modest reversal in momentum. Bollinger Bands show that volatility has contracted significantly in the early hours, followed by a slight expansion during the recovery. Price is currently trading just above the 20-period MA and within the upper half of the bands, suggesting that the rebound could continue for at least one more session.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent low of $0.2309 to the high of $0.2610 indicate that current price is near the 38.2% retracement level. This could act as a key support or pivot zone in the near term. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.2470, which may offer near-term support or resistance depending on market sentiment. The price’s interaction with these levels could provide a high-probability entry or exit point for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable short-term strategy for COWUSDC involves entering long positions after the price reclaims the 20-period moving average and forms a bullish reversal pattern—such as a hammer or morning star—while RSI and MACD show positive divergence. Stops could be placed just below the nearest Fibonacci level or key support, with a target at the next Fibonacci retracement or resistance level. Given the recent consolidation and oversold conditions, this strategy could have shown positive expectancy in the past, particularly during periods of low volatility followed by expansion. A backtest using daily and 15-minute data from the past three months would help quantify its effectiveness in the COWUSDC market.