CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview (COWUSDC) for 2025-09-16

• Price opened at $0.3323 and closed at $0.3367 with a high of $0.3411 and low of $0.3298
• Strong bullish momentum in late hours, closing near session high after consolidation
• Volatility increased midday, with volume spiking to over 40k units at 13:45 ET
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near peak while price remained within Bollinger bands
• Turnover surged with key breaks in structure suggesting potential trend acceleration

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16, CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at $0.3323, reached a high of $0.3411, a low of $0.3298, and closed at $0.3367. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume was 236,101.2 units, and notional turnover amounted to $78,434.60. The pair displayed a distinct shift in momentum during the afternoon and evening hours, with a late push above prior resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a clear bullish engulfing pattern at 08:15 ET, marking the start of a late-day rally. Following a consolidation phase between 09:45 and 11:45 ET, a breakout above the previous high of $0.3405 occurred at 08:15 ET, forming a higher high in a descending triangle pattern. A critical support level appears at $0.3345, which the price tested multiple times and failed to break below. A bearish reversal was observed at 04:15 ET as the price dropped from $0.3381 to $0.3336 in one candle, though it quickly recovered.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price trading above its 20-period moving average, with the 50-period trailing slightly below. This divergence suggests potential bullish continuation. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are closely aligned, with the 200-period MA acting as a long-term support zone at around $0.3310. The price has not yet broken the 100-period MA, indicating a potential consolidation phase before a directional move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive after 08:15 ET, confirming the bullish momentum shift, while the signal line crossed above it at 10:45 ET, reinforcing the uptrend. The RSI reached 65–70 during the rally, indicating overbought conditions without immediate signs of bearish divergence. Price has remained within the RSI 50–70 range since the afternoon breakout, suggesting continued short-term bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands

The price remained within the Bollinger Bands for much of the session, with a notable volatility contraction observed between 04:15 and 08:00 ET before the late-day expansion. The bands began to widen again after 08:15 ET, signaling potential volatility and breakout conditions. Currently, the price sits near the upper band, suggesting a potential reversal or a continuation of the uptrend could follow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key breakout at 08:15 ET, reaching over 3,611 units in that candle, with subsequent volume staying elevated during the consolidation phase. Notional turnover increased proportionally, indicating buy-side participation rather than wash trading. A minor divergence appears at 04:15 ET where turnover was relatively low despite a large price drop, suggesting short-term bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $0.3298 to $0.3411, the price found support at 61.8% retrace near $0.3345 and attempted a rally from that level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retrace of the prior week’s bearish move sits at $0.3360, which the price nearly reached before reversing again. The 61.8% retrace at $0.3395 could serve as a resistance target for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The identified bullish engulfing pattern at 08:15 ET and the subsequent breakout above $0.3405 could serve as a strong entry signal for a short-term long position. A stop-loss could be placed below $0.3345, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. A target of $0.3395 (38.2% retrace) or $0.3411 (prior high) would offer a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:1.5, assuming moderate volatility. This setup is best suited for intraday traders focusing on high-probability breakouts.