CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Price surged from 0.2117 to 0.2368, forming a bullish breakout with strong volume support.
• RSI and MACD showed positive momentum, with RSI peaking near overbought levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the rally, indicating rising volatility.
• Volume spiked at key resistance levels, suggesting active accumulation and selling pressure.
• A pullback to 0.2281-0.2310 may test short-term demand before further direction.

Market Overview

CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at 0.2117 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.2368, dipped to a low of 0.2180, and closed at 0.2171 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 439,567.1 units, while total notional turnover reached $95,548.63, reflecting a significant increase in trading activity.

The 15-minute chart shows a powerful move from 0.2124 to 0.2368 over the course of 6.5 hours, indicating strong bullish momentum. The price action was supported by increasing volume at key resistance levels (notably at 0.2223, 0.2241, and 0.2283), suggesting active participation from both buyers and sellers. The subsequent pullback from 0.2368 to 0.2171 shows signs of profit-taking and possible consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displays a strong bullish breakout pattern, followed by a retracement to test previous support levels. A key bullish engulfing pattern was observed around 0.2127–0.2138 (17:45–18:00 ET), followed by a bearish spinning top at 0.2135–0.2122 (19:00 ET). These patterns suggest a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with the 0.2281–0.2310 range acting as a crucial pivot for the next directional move.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bullish crossover, indicating strengthening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is well below the current price, suggesting the rally has been strong enough to outperform its trend. A potential consolidation phase may test these moving averages as dynamic support/resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive and expanded during the rally, with a bullish histogram showing strong momentum. RSI climbed from 45 to 75–80 during the peak of the move, suggesting overbought conditions, which may lead to a short-term pullback. However, the RSI has yet to show divergence from the price, indicating the bullish trend could remain intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, reflecting heightened volatility. Price reached the upper band at 0.2368, signaling a potential overbought condition and a possible pullback. The lower band was tested at 0.2180, showing resilience in the short-term support zone. A move back above 0.2310 could see a retest of the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply at key price levels, especially during the breakout from 0.2135 to 0.2283. The largest volume spike occurred around 20:45–21:15 ET when the price surged to 0.2223–0.2231. Notional turnover also rose in line with price, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between volume and price could signal a weakening trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing (0.2124–0.2368), the 0.2281–0.2310 range aligns with the 38.2–50% level. On the daily chart, the 0.2171–0.2283 swing aligns with the 61.8% retracement level. A breakout above 0.2310 could target 0.2368 again, while a breakdown to 0.2241 could lead to further consolidation or even a test of 0.2200.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described strategy—a 1-day RSI-based buy signal (< 30) with an exit the following day—would require a valid ticker to be executed accurately. Given the current data for COWUSDC, the RSI has not yet entered oversold territory during the 24-hour period, but it dipped close to 35 during the consolidation phase. If a similar strategy were applied using RSI levels < 40 as a proxy for early accumulation, it could have captured the 0.2200–0.2283 rally. However, the success of this approach depends heavily on market volatility and liquidity, which are both elevated for COWUSDC.