CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview

• CoW Protocol/USDC declined sharply from $0.2176 to $0.1829 on elevated volume, signaling bearish momentum.
• A key support level appears near $0.1925–0.1930, with a potential rebound observed after the selloff.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early hours followed by expansion suggests increasing volatility.
• Price appears to be testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high, with potential for further downside.

CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at $0.2148 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1928 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, marking a 24-hour low of $0.1829 and high of $0.2176. The total volume over the 24 hours reached 245,555.5 (amount) with a notional turnover of $49,935.60 (based on closing prices).

The price action displayed a strong bearish bias, with a sharp decline occurring after the 23:00 ET timeframe on November 2, where the asset dropped from a high of $0.2176 to a low of $0.1926 by the early morning hours of November 3. Notable candlestick formations include a long bearish shadow in the early hours of the morning, indicating strong seller pressure. A bullish engulfing pattern followed around 05:15 ET as price rebounded from $0.2047 to $0.2070. A potential support level at $0.1925–0.1930 was tested twice and partially held, suggesting a temporary floor. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line in the late hours, confirming short-term bearish momentum.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both in a downward trend, with the 50-period line below the 20-period, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs were also trending downward, with the 200-period MA acting as a long-term resistance. MACD showed negative divergence with the price during the selloff, with the histogram shrinking after the price drop. RSI readings fell into oversold territory near the $0.1929 level, suggesting possible short-term buying interest. Bollinger Bands were in a contraction phase during the early hours before a significant expansion occurred, indicating rising volatility.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the swing high ($0.2176) to the swing low ($0.1829) was around $0.1945, which the price tested but failed to hold. A 38.2% retracement level at $0.1998 was briefly held during the morning but gave way to further downward movement. The selloff appears to be driven by large liquidation trades, particularly around 08:30 ET when the asset fell from $0.2037 to $0.1980 in one candle. This was followed by a consolidation phase before the next leg down to the $0.1925 level.

The price may test the next Fibonacci level at $0.1910 in the coming 24 hours, with a potential rebound to $0.1995 if support holds. Traders should monitor volume at key levels to determine the strength of the support or resistance. A break below $0.1925 could signal further downside, while a recovery above $0.2000 could indicate a reversal of the current bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent sharp decline and RSI oversold reading suggest a potential entry point for a short-term long strategy if the asset respects the $0.1925 support. A backtest could validate the viability of buying at or near oversold RSI levels over a 7-day horizon, assuming a correct ticker is used. Future analysis should confirm the appropriate symbol and data source (e.g., COW/USDC, exchange-specific data) to refine the RSI-based backtesting framework.