CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview

• CoW Protocol/USDC traded in a tight range around $0.2215, with limited directional bias observed.
• Price tested key resistance at $0.2220–$0.2225 multiple times but failed to break through.
• Volume spiked at 21:00 ET and 23:00 ET, coinciding with price consolidation and retests of support.
• Bollinger Bands constricted in early hours, suggesting potential for a breakout, but volatility remained muted.
• RSI and MACD signals remain neutral, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions forming.

CoW Protocol/USDC opened at $0.2199 (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a high of $0.2234 before closing at $0.2227 (12:00 ET) on November 2, 2025. The total 24-hour volume was 171,023.6 units, while notional turnover amounted to $37,696.6. Price activity was confined to a narrow range with multiple failed attempts to breach $0.2225, a level that appears to function as a key resistance.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a series of small bullish and bearish engulfing patterns throughout the session, particularly around 19:15 and 22:15 ET, where price reversed direction after brief spikes. A doji appeared at 19:45 ET, signaling indecision, and the 21:00 ET candle marked a strong bullish reversal with a 14-basis-point increase. Key support levels were observed at $0.2212 and $0.2207, with the latter providing a floor for a sharp drop at 17:00 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have remained relatively flat, indicating no strong trend formation. Price has oscillated between these lines throughout the day, with a slight bias toward the 20-period line in the later hours. No significant crossovers have occurred, and the average convergence divergence remains minimal, suggesting a continuation of range-bound trading.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has hovered around the neutral zone for most of the day, with occasional positive divergences during volume surges. RSI oscillated between 45 and 55, failing to enter overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) territory. This suggests that momentum has remained neutral and that the market has lacked conviction in either direction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed signs of contraction during the early morning hours, which typically precedes a breakout or breakdown. However, the expected increase in volatility did not materialize. Price has instead remained within the upper and lower bands, particularly between $0.2212 and $0.2225, with the most recent candle closing just below the upper band. This suggests that traders may continue to watch these levels closely for further direction.

Volume & Turnover
Volume has been generally low, with spikes observed at 21:00 ET and 23:00 ET, where notional turnover increased by ~$875 and ~$2,680, respectively. These spikes coincided with minor price consolidations and retests of key levels. A divergence in volume and price movement was noted at 20:00 ET, where price fell sharply on very low volume. This may indicate a lack of selling pressure and could foreshadow a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 0.2199–0.2220 swing show that price has tested both the 61.8% and 38.2% retracement levels multiple times during the session. The 61.8% level at $0.2216 has acted as a magnet for price action and appears to be a key area of interest for traders. A break above the 78.6% retracement at $0.2227 could open the door to the next major resistance at $0.2230.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the neutral momentum profile and range-bound behavior observed in this dataset, a backtest based on RSI or MACD signals would likely show limited efficacy. However, a potential strategy could involve a breakout system where entries are triggered when price closes above or below the upper/lower Bollinger Bands, particularly if volume confirms the move. For example, a breakout above $0.2225 on rising volume may be a viable entry point. To refine this approach, we would need the 14-day RSI and a full OHLCV price series to generate signals and evaluate performance. Without access to the full dataset, we cannot proceed with a detailed backtest at this time.