CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview

• Price dropped from 0.2976 to 0.2965 amid moderate volume, forming bearish momentum.
• A key support near 0.2932 was tested and rejected, with limited rebound.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum, suggesting possible short-term consolidation.
• Volatility expanded early before contracting, indicating reduced trading pressure.
• Turnover increased in late hours, pointing to renewed interest near 0.296 level.

The CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) pair opened at 0.2976 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2986, touched a low of 0.288, and closed at 0.2965 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 231,273.5, with a notional turnover of approximately $69,485.62.

Structure & Formations on the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish bias, with multiple lower closes and a confirmed breakdown from key resistance at 0.295–0.296. A large bearish candle on October 5 at 18:15 ET (0.2919 close) signaled exhaustion in the bullish trend. The price tested 0.2932 support three times with diminishing bounce, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase. A small doji formed at 0.2932 and 0.2934, highlighting indecision. The intraday low at 0.288 represented a 2.8% pullback from the prior swing high, hinting at deeper bearish territory if broken.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic resistance near 0.295. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs remained bearish but showed signs of flattening, suggesting a possible near-term pause in the downtrend. The 100-period MA held around 0.294–0.295 and could serve as a re-entry point for short-term buyers.

MACD crossed into negative territory early in the session and remained there, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed decreasing bearish strength in the final hours, possibly indicating a short-term bottoming process. RSI reached oversold territory (30–35) on October 6 at 08:15–10:00 ET, but failed to generate a strong rebound. This suggests that while the pair is oversold, buying interest is lacking. Bollinger Bands were in a contraction phase at the end of the session, indicating potential for a breakout or false move.

Volume and turnover increased in the final hours, especially between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, with a 22,206.3 volume candle at 15:45 ET being the most active of the day. This coincided with a price rejection at 0.2965, suggesting short-term support. Notional turnover increased by over 30% during this period, pointing to renewed buyer interest. However, price failed to hold the 0.296–0.297 level, indicating weak follow-through.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the October 5 high (0.2986) to the October 6 low (0.288) showed key levels at 0.293 (38.2%), 0.290 (61.8%), and 0.287 (78.6%). The pair bounced off the 61.8% level twice but failed to break above the 38.2% level, which may now serve as a new resistance. The 78.6% level appears as a critical support if the bearish trend continues.

The backtest hypothesis involves a momentum-based strategy that targets breakouts from tight consolidations or Bollinger Band contractions. The strategy would initiate long positions when price breaks above the 0.2956 level (the 38.2% Fib) on increased volume and a bullish MACD crossover, while short positions would be triggered on a break below 0.291 (61.8% Fib) with a bearish MACD and RSI below 30. Stop-loss and take-profit levels would be set using the most recent swing highs and lows. This approach could be effective in the context of current volatility and diverging momentum indicators.