CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview for 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price tested key resistance near $0.2193 before retracing lower.
• Volatility expanded during late-night trading, with high turnover in early morning.
• RSI suggests overbought levels in the evening, followed by bearish divergence.

COW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at $0.2067 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.22, and closed at $0.206 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The 24-hour volume was 379,168.5 units, with a total turnover of $78,381.85.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern after a key support level at $0.2163 held during early morning hours, but failed to sustain above $0.2193, forming a bearish key reversal pattern. A doji appeared at $0.2193 around 03:00 ET, suggesting indecision after the rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price crossed above the 20-period SMA, but closed below the 50-period SMA by early morning, indicating fading bullish momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain neutral as the price lacks a strong directional bias over the past week.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the early morning, aligning with the pullback after the initial rally. RSI peaked at overbought levels (~78) during the overnight session and failed to hold above 65, signaling weakening momentum and potential for a deeper correction.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke above the upper band at $0.22 during the early morning, confirming a short-term breakout. However, it quickly retracted into the lower half of the bands by late morning, indicating a temporary volatility spike and lack of follow-through buying.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight hours, particularly between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, coinciding with the high at $0.22. However, turnover diverged from price action in the early morning, with volume declining despite price falling below the breakout level, suggesting caution among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the retracement from the $0.22 high to the $0.206 low showed key levels at 38.2% ($0.2124) and 61.8% ($0.2096), with price finding temporary support at both levels. Daily retracements from the previous week’s swing highs and lows align with recent resistance near $0.2193 and support near $0.2120.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong RSI overbought readings and divergence, a potential backtest strategy could involve using a 14-day RSI with standard overbought (> 70) and oversold (< 30) thresholds to time exits and entries. A trailing stop-loss could be used to protect gains during volatile swings like those seen in the overnight session. Entering at the open of the next day after a close above key resistance or below key support could help mitigate slippage.